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The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective

Author

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  • Mr. Daniel Leigh
  • Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
  • Mr. Ashoka Mody

Abstract

The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second transition, this paper reaches three conclusions. First, by several metrics, East European and East Asian growth performances were about on par from the mid-1990s; both regions far surpassed Latin American growth. Second, the mechanisms of growth in East Europe and East Asia were, however, very different. East Europe relied on a distinctive-often discredited-model, embracing financial integration with structural change to compensate for appreciating real exchange rates. In contrast, East Asia contained further financial integration and maintained steady or depreciating real exchange rates. Third, the ongoing financial turbulence has, thus far, not had an obviously differential impact on emerging market regions: rather, the hot spots in each region reflect individual country vulnerabilities. If the East European growth model is distinctive, is it sustainable and replicable? The paper speculates on the possibilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Stefania Fabrizio & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2009. "The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2009/043, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mevlud Islami & Paul Welfens, 2013. "Financial market integration, stock markets and exchange rate dynamics in Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 47-79, March.
    2. Daniela Gabor, 2011. "Paradigm shift? A critique of the IMF’s new approach to capital controls," Working Papers 1109, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    3. Daniela Gabor, 2012. "Managing Capital Accounts in Emerging Markets: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 714-731, June.
    4. Marcin, Piatkowski, 2009. "The Coming Golden Age of New Europe," MPRA Paper 19523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Benoit Dicharry & Lubica Stiblarova, 2023. "Positive externalities of the EU cohesion policy: Toward more synchronised CEE countries?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 485-508, July.
    6. Adalbert Winkler, 2012. "The Financial Crisis: A Wake-up Call for Strengthening Regional Monitoring of Financial Markets and Regional Coordination of Financial Sector Policies?," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & David G. Mayes & Peter Morgan (ed.), Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Friedrich, Christian & Schnabel, Isabel & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2013. "Financial integration and growth — Why is Emerging Europe different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 522-538.
    8. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2016. "Strategic decisions on industrialization: case of Galati Steel Works," MPRA Paper 89007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    9. Karsten Staehr, 2018. "Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Ruben Atoyan, 2010. "Beyond the crisis: revisiting emerging Europe’s growth model," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 329-356.
    11. Daniela Veronica Gabor, 2012. "The Road to Financialization in Central and Eastern Europe: The Early Policies and Politics of Stabilizing Transition," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 227-249, April.
    12. Emil Panusheff, 2011. "The effect of the milieu and the financial crisis on the economic stability of the EU Member States," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 64-80.
    13. Bruno Dallago, 2009. "Analysis, interpretation, and the local dimension of economic transformation: What went wrong and why?," Openloc Working Papers 0913, Public policies and local development.
    14. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

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