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Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia

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  • Mr. Tetsuya Konuki

Abstract

This paper estimates potential output and the output gap for Slovakia which enjoyed rapid growth with few signs of economic overheating in recent years. It applies two broad sets of approaches: conventional methods, represented by a statistical method and a production function approach; and a multivariate (MV) Kalman filter method. The MV Kalman filter method produces estimates of excess demand that portray much more sensibly the situation in recent years in Slovakia than the conventional methods, because it can use more information to condition the paths of potential output.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tetsuya Konuki, 2008. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 2008/275, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ludovit Odor & Judita Jurasekova Kucserova, 2014. "Finding Yeti: More robust estimates of output gap in Slovakia," Working Papers Working Paper No. 2/2014, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/016, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Brian Micallef, 2016. "A Multivariate Filter to Estimate Potential Output and NAIRU for the Maltese Economy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(5), pages 13-22, May.
    4. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Maria Kazakova & Michael Alexeev, 2016. "Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rates," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 167P, pages 123-123.
    5. Johannes Hermanus Kemp, 2015. "Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 549-568, December.
    6. Dana Kloudová, 2016. "Does Using Nairu In The Production Function Influence Estimation Of Potential Output And Output Gap?," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, June.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2010/197, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Dana Kloudová, 2013. "Produkční mezera jako indikátor inflace - případ pro českou ekonomiku [Output Gap as Indicator of Inflation - Case for Czech Economy]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(5), pages 639-652.
    9. Dan Armeanu & Nicolae Istudor & Leonard Lache, 2015. "The Role of SMEs in Assessing the Contribution of Entrepreneurship to GDP in the Romanian Business Environment," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 17(38), pages 195-195, February.
    10. M. Skrypnychenko & H. Yatsenko, 2018. "An instrumental analysis of GDP gap in Ukraine," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 1, pages 58-78.
    11. Peter Kukuk & Adam Gersl, 2011. "Political Pressure on the National Bank of Slovakia," Working Papers IES 2011/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2011.
    12. Murat Ungor, 2012. "A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1219, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Nepal Rastra Bank, 2017. "Potential Output and Output Gap Estimates for Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 29(2), pages 1-14, October.
    14. Neményi, Judit & Oblath, Gábor, 2012. "Az euró bevezetésének újragondolása [Rethinking Hungary s prospective adoption of the Euro]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 569-684.
    15. Nur Ain Shahrier & Chuah Lay Lian, 2019. "Estimating Malaysia’S Output Gap: Have We Closed The Gap?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 647-674, June.
    16. El-Baz, Osama, 2016. "Estimating Egypt’s Potential Output: A Production Function Approach," MPRA Paper 71652, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 May 2016.
    17. Dana Kloudová, 2016. "Calculation Of Capital-To-Output Ratio In A Production Function By Estimating Potential Output And Output Gap: The Case For The Czech Republic And Slovakia," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3206128, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    18. El-Baz, Osama, 2016. "Investigating the Trajectory of Egypt’s Potential Output: Pre and Post the Arab Spring," MPRA Paper 75778, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Oct 2016.

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