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Az euró bevezetésének újragondolása
[Rethinking Hungary s prospective adoption of the Euro]

Author

Listed:
  • Neményi, Judit
  • Oblath, Gábor

Abstract

Írásunk célja az euró magyarországi bevezetését övező makrogazdasági kérdések ismételt átgondolása. Ennek egyik fontos indítéka, hogy a hivatalos csatlakozási céldátumot a kormány anélkül tolta 2020-nál "nem korábbra", hogy azt szakmai eszmecsere vagy publikus kormányzati elemzés megalapozta volna. A tanulmány áttekinti a 2000-es évek első felében megfogalmazott szakmai megfontolásokat, bemutatja a korábbi kormányok által kinyilvánított, valamint a gazdaságpolitikában feltárult törekvéseket az euróövezeti csatlakozást illetően. Annak fényében eleveníti fel az euró bevezetéséhez kapcsolódó kérdéseket, hogy a valutaunió egyes tagországai súlyos válságba kerültek, ami magát az euróövezetet is válságba sodorta; három közép-kelet-európai EU-tagország az euróövezet tagjává vált, s tapasztalataik számos tanulsággal szolgálnak; továbbá az övezet országaira vonatkozó közös szabályok is jelentősen módosultak. Az elemzés fő következtetése az, hogy a csatlakozás időzítésétől függetlenül Magyarországnak érdekében áll az euróbevezetés feltételeinek mielőbbi teljesítése. E feltételek azonban nem csupán a maastrichti kritériumokat tartalmazzák, hanem "belső" követelményeket is, így azt, hogy az inflációs várakozások alacsony szinten stabilizálódjanak, továbbá létrejöjjenek a bér- és termelékenységalakulás tartós összhangját biztosító intézmények, mechanizmusok. A csatlakozás feltételeinek megteremtésére vonatkozó szándékot igazoló lépések növelnék a hazai gazdaságpolitika iránti nemzetközi bizalmat, és javítanák a gazdasági felzárkózás kilátásait. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: F33, F35, E58, E65.

Suggested Citation

  • Neményi, Judit & Oblath, Gábor, 2012. "Az euró bevezetésének újragondolása [Rethinking Hungary s prospective adoption of the Euro]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 569-684.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1309
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    1. Tarafás, Imre, 2013. "Az euró - vélt és valódi gyengeségek [The euro - its weaknesses real and imagined]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 359-364.
    2. Palánkai, Tibor & Benczes, István & Kollai, István, 2022. "Egységes valuta az európai integráció perspektívájában [The single currency in the context of European integration]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 299-313.
    3. Török, Ádám, 2012. "Tankolás a levegőben?. Megjegyzések a magyar euróbevezetési stratégia feltételeiről és korlátairól [Fuelling in flight?. Notes on the conditions and constraints on Hungary s strategy for introducin," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 911-916.
    4. Terták, Elemér, 2014. "EU-tagságunk tíz éve a pénzügyi szektor perspektívájából [Ten years EU membership for the financial sector]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 414-438.
    5. Győrffy, Dóra, 2013. "Crisis Management in the EU, Prospects for the De-politicisation of Economic Policy," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(2), pages 119-132.
    6. Szakolczai, György, 2020. "Az euró reformja - a keynesi szellemű megoldás [Reform of the euro: the Keynesian solution]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 911-929.
    7. Mihályi, Péter, 2012. "Ez a hajó elment... Az euró magyarországi bevezetése - múlt és jövő [Missed the boat... Hungary s introduction of the euro - past and present]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 917-922.
    8. Benczes, István & Rezessy, Gergely, 2013. "Governance in Europe, Trends and Fault Lines," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(2), pages 133-147.
    9. Bod, Péter Ákos & Pócsik, Orsolya & Neszmélyi, György Iván, 2020. "Az euró és a szlovák gazdaság [The Euro and the Slovak Economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 321-351.
    10. Soós, Károly Attila, 2021. "Az optimális valutaövezet két elmélete - aszimmetrikus sokkok és nemzetközi pénzügyi integráció [Principles of optimal currency areas: asymmetric shocks and international financial integration]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1250-1275.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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