IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2008-144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Jun I Kim

Abstract

This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between the probability of a sudden stop and the level of reserves. The calibration results for 15 selected emerging market countries in Latin America, Asia and other regions over the sample period of 1993-2006 suggest that the risk of sudden stops may have declined to a low level in recent years in all countries in the sample. The results also suggest that Asia and Russia may have been significantly over insured since early 2000s with estimated excess reserves of US$ 1 trillion in total at end-2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jun I Kim, 2008. "Sudden Stops and Optimal Self-Insurance," IMF Working Papers 2008/144, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21981
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    2. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    3. Mr. Jun I Kim, 2006. "IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework," IMF Working Papers 2006/156, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2006. "Catalytic finance: When does it work?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 161-177, September.
    5. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    6. Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 2006/229, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2006. "Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.),External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 6, pages 171-206, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan & Mr. Juan Zalduendo, 2006. "The Role of IMF Support in Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 2006/075, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    2. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Jorge Guillén & Jussara Ribeiro, 2021. "An international reserves variation threshold to increase loan funding," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 247-265, May.
    3. Ben Hassine, Hela, 2015. "Financial Crises Management By The IMF : Was External And Public Debt Sustainable ?," MPRA Paper 75466, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    2. Marcello Spanò, 2012. "The Effect Of Openness On Foreign Reserves And Growth In The Emerging Economies," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 7-23, March.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-31, January.
    4. Marcello Spanò, 2013. "Foreign Reserves as Hedging Instruments in Emerging Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 203-230, April.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Inoue, Kenta, 2013. "Central banks and gold puzzles," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 69-90.
    6. Beck, Roland & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2011. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1107-1127, October.
    7. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Does an Undervalued Currency Merit Economic Growth? – Evidence from Taiwan," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 37-57, March.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua, 2019. "A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 444-454.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    10. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
    11. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    12. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    13. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    14. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan & Tom Willett, 2008. "Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 171-199.
    15. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2010. "Was the Asian crisis a wake-up call?: Foreign reserves as self-protection," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Biljana Jovanovikj & Danica Unevska Andonova, 2017. "The Optimal Level of Foreign Reserves in Macedonia," Working Papers 2017-05, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    17. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    18. Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kim, Won Joong & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D., 2014. "Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals, financial stress and economic uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 170-189.
    19. Sula, Ozan & Oguzoglu, Umut, 2021. "International reserves and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 16-28.
    20. Leontyeva, Elena (Леонтьева, Елена) & Narkevich, Sergey (Наркевич, Сергей), 2015. "Optimal Practice of Creation and Management of Gold Reserves [Оптимальная Практика Создания И Управления Золотовалютными Резервами]," Published Papers mak12, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.