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Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk

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  • Arslanalp, Serkan
  • Liao, Yin

Abstract

The global financial crisis has underscored the need to pay attention to contingent government liabilities that could arise from bank failures for sovereign risk management. This paper proposes a simple method to construct a contingent liability index (CLI) for a banking sector that takes into account the size and concentration of the banking system, market expectations of bank defaults, and perceptions of government support to each bank. This method allows us to track potential government liabilities related to bank failures for 32 advanced and emerging economies on a monthly basis from 2006 to 2013. Furthermore, we find that the CLI is a significant determinant of sovereign CDS spreads. Our results suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the CLI is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads by 24 basis points for advanced economies and 75 basis points for emerging markets on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Arslanalp, Serkan & Liao, Yin, 2014. "Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 316-330.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:316-330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2014.08.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammadreza Janvisloo Alizadeh & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi, 2017. "Merton Model and Capital Measurement in Commercial Banks: A Case Study of Selected Emerging Countries in Southeast Asia," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 24(3), pages 169-191, September.
    2. Du Jianguo & Rauf Ibrahim & Peter Lartey Yao & Rupa Jaladi Santosh & Amponsah Clinton Kwabena, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Internal Controls in Rural Community Banks: Evidence from Ghana," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 202-218, December.
    3. Serhan Cevik & Belma Öztürkkal, 2021. "Contagion of fear: Is the impact of COVID‐19 on sovereign risk really indiscriminate?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 134-154, August.
    4. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Yixuan Duan & Min Guo & Yixuan Huang, 2022. "Leverage of Local State-Owned Enterprises, Implicit Contingent Liabilities of Government and Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Fiordelisi, Franco & Girardone, Claudia & Minnucci, Federica & Ricci, Ornella, 2020. "On the nexus between sovereign risk and banking crises," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Aitor Erce & Xu Jiang & Diana Zigraiova, 2020. "Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges," Globalization Institute Working Papers 377, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    9. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2019. "“Increasing contingent guarantees: The asymmetrical effect on sovereign risk of different government interventions"," IREA Working Papers 201914, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2019.
    10. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2015. "Contingent Liabilities from Banks: How to Track Them?," IMF Working Papers 2015/255, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Keddad, Benjamin & Schalck, Christophe, 2020. "Evaluating sovereign risk spillovers on domestic banks during the European debt crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 356-375.
    12. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contingent liabilities; Sovereign risk; Banking sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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