IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2007-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia's Stubbornly Low Tax Collection

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. David A. Grigorian
  • Mr. Hamid R Davoodi

Abstract

Despite recording double digit growth since 2000, Armenia's tax-to-GDP ratio has been fairly stable at about 14½ percent. This paper catalogues a range of factors that may account for Armenia's stubbornly for tax collection by benchmarking Armenia's tax-to-GDP against some comparator countries and conducting an extensive econometric study of the main determinants of tax collection. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that the persistence of Armenia's low tax-GDP ratio can be traced to persistence of weak institutions and a large shadow economy. The gap between the potential and actual tax collection in Armenia could be as high as 6½ percent of GDP. We conclude with some policy recommendations that, if adopted, can boost revenue buoyancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. David A. Grigorian & Mr. Hamid R Davoodi, 2007. "Tax Potential vs. Tax Effort: A Cross-Country Analysis of Armenia's Stubbornly Low Tax Collection," IMF Working Papers 2007/106, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20642
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald G. Cummings & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Michael McKee & Benno Torgler, 2005. "Effects of Tax Morale on Tax Compliance: Experimental and Survey Evidence (2005)," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0516, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    2. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    3. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
    4. Agbeyegbe, Terence D. & Stotsky, Janet & WoldeMariam, Asegedech, 2006. "Trade liberalization, exchange rate changes, and tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 261-284, April.
    5. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2014. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 301-351, May.
    6. Leuthold, Jane H., 1991. "Tax shares in developing economies A panel study," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 173-185, January.
    7. Benno Torgler, 2003. "Tax Morale in Transition Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 357-381.
    8. Ronald G. Cummings & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Michael McKee & Benno Torgler, 2005. "Effects of Tax Morale on Tax Compliance: Experimental and Survey Evidence," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-29, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    9. Baunsgaard, Thomas & Keen, Michael, 2010. "Tax revenue and (or?) trade liberalization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 563-577, October.
    10. Joweria M. Teera & John Hudson, 2004. "Tax performance: a comparative study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 785-802.
    11. Alm, James & Torgler, Benno, 2006. "Culture differences and tax morale in the United States and in Europe," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 224-246, April.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/434, International Monetary Fund.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Republic of Armenia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/434, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    15. Mr. Vito Tanzi & Mr. Hamid R Davoodi, 2000. "Corruption, Growth, and Public Finances," IMF Working Papers 2000/182, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Tanzi, Vito & Zee, Howell H., 2000. "Tax Policy for Emerging Markets: Developing Countries," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(2), pages 299-322, June.
    17. Mr. Arvind Subramanian & Mr. Francesco Trebbi & Mr. Dani Rodrik, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Integration and Geography in Economic Development," IMF Working Papers 2002/189, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2014. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 301-351, May.
    19. Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky & Ms. Asegedech WoldeMariam, 1997. "Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1997/107, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Warlters, Michael, 2005. "Taxation base in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 625-646, April.
    21. Mr. Vito Tanzi & Mr. Hamid R Davoodi, 1997. "Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 1997/139, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "The Gambia: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation; Informational Annex; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/289, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Productivity Commission, 2008. "Assessing Local Government Revenue Raising Capacity," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 26.
    3. Mawejje, Joseph & Sebudde, Rachel K., 2019. "Tax revenue potential and effort: Worldwide estimates using a new dataset," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-129.
    4. Carola Pessino & Ricardo Fenochietto, 2010. "Determining countries’ tax effort," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 65-87, december.
    5. Siongofolo Seydou Soro, 2020. "Institutional Quality and Tax Revenue in C te d Ivoire: Evidence from ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 40-49.
    6. Mwakalobo, Adam B. S., 2015. "Dynamics of Revenue Generation in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda: A Co-integration and error-correction modeling approach," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 3(2), July.
    7. Attiya Y. Javid & Umaima Arif, 2012. "Analysis of Revenue Potential and Revenue Effort in Developing Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 365-380.
    8. Sacchidananda Mukherjee, 2020. "Goods and Services Tax efficiency across Indian States: panel stochastic frontier analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 225-251, December.
    9. Cao, Rui-fen & Zhang, An-lu & Cai, Yin-ying & Xie, Xiang-xiang, 2020. "How imbalanced land development affects local fiscal condition? A case study of Hubei Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Gwaindepi, Abel, 2019. "Domestic revenue mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America: A comparative analysis since 1980," Lund Papers in Economic History 209, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    11. Garg, Sandya & Ashima Goyal & Rupayan Pal, 2014. "Why tax effort falls short of capacity in Indian states: A Stochastic frontier approach," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-032, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    12. Compaoré, Ali, 2022. "Access-for-all to financial services: Non-resources tax revenue-harnessing opportunities in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-245.
    13. Abel Gwaindepi, 2021. "Domestic revenue mobilisation in developing countries: An exploratory analysis of sub‐Saharan Africa and Latin America," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 396-421, March.
    14. OGNERU, Victor, 2019. "Analysis Of The Relationship Between Tax Revenue And Gross Value Added In The Romanian Economy," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 23(2), pages 37-55, June.
    15. Lien, Nguyen Phuong, 2015. "The impact of institutional quality on tax revenue in developing countries," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(10), pages 181-195, October.
    16. Victor Barros & Joao Tovar Jalles & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2023. "Drivers of the Tax Effort: Evidence from a Large Panel," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 96-136, March.
    17. Brima Ibrahim Baimba Kargbo & Adegbemi Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2012. "Tax Elasticity in Sierra Leone: A Time Series Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 432-447.
    18. Antinyan, Armenak & Corazzini, Luca & Pavesi, Filippo, 2020. "Does trust in the government matter for whistleblowing on tax evaders? Survey and experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 77-95.
    19. Armenak Antinyan & Luca Corazzini & Filippo Pavesi, 2018. "What Matters for Whistleblowing on Tax Evaders? Survey and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 07/2018, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    20. Víctor Mauricio Castaneda Rodríguez, 2014. "El gasto social como factor que favorece una mayor dependencia del IVA. Un análisis para el caso colombiano," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, June.
    21. Gohar S. Sedrakyan, 2017. "The Effects of Presumptive Methods of Taxation on Revenue Mobilization in the Value Added Tax," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1718, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    22. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo & Ferreira de Mendonça, Helder, 2016. "Inflation targeting and tax effort: Evidence from Colombia," MPRA Paper 90544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2018.
    23. Mamadou Bah, 2024. "Tax revenue mobilization and institutional quality in sub‐Saharan Africa: An empirical investigation," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 201-221, June.
    24. Mr. Marco Committeri & Ms. Carola Pessino, 2013. "Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort," IMF Working Papers 2013/244, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Paulo Drummond & Mr. Wendell Daal & Mr. Nandini Srivastava & Mr. Luiz E Oliveira, 2012. "Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Norms and Key Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2012/108, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Siongofolo Seydou Soro, 2020. "Institutional Quality and Tax Revenue in C te d Ivoire: Evidence from ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 40-49.
    3. Manamba Epaphra, & John Massawe,, 2017. "Corruption, governance and tax revenues in Africa," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(4), pages 439-467, October.
    4. José Antonio Alonso & Carlos Garcimartín, 2011. "Does Aid Hinder Tax Efforts? More Evidence," Discussion Papers 11/04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    5. Mr. Marco Committeri & Ms. Carola Pessino, 2013. "Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort," IMF Working Papers 2013/244, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Carola Pessino & Ricardo Fenochietto, 2010. "Determining countries’ tax effort," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 65-87, december.
    7. James Alm & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2007. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion in Latin America," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0704, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    8. Leanora Alecia Brown & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2015. "International Debt Forgiveness: Who Gets Picked and Its Effect On The Tax Effort Of Developing Countries," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1504, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    9. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2007. "Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt26s710z8, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    10. Hermann D. Yohou, 2023. "Corruption, tax reform and fiscal space in emerging and developing economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 1082-1118, April.
    11. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," CERDI Working papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    12. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," Working Papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    13. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2008. "The level and composition of tax revenue in developing countries: Evidence from unbalanced panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-617, October.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Internet and tax reform in developing countries," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Djedje Hermann Yohou, 2020. "Corruption, Tax reform and Fiscal space in Emerging and Developing Economies," Working Papers hal-02987268, HAL.
    16. Godin, M. & Hindriks, J., 2015. "A Review of Critical Issues on Tax Design and Tax Administration in a Global Economy and Developing Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2015028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    18. Richard M. Bird & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Benno Torgler, 2014. "Societal Institutions and Tax Effort in Developing Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 301-351, May.
    19. repec:idq:ictduk:13711 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Feger, Thuto & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2014. "Tax effort performance in sub-Sahara Africa and the role of colonialism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-174.
    21. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Effect of Development Aid on Tax Reform in Recipient-Countries: Does Trade Openness Matter?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-23, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.