IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/oaefxx/v6y2018i1p1537822.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate volatility and tax revenue: Evidence from Ghana

Author

Listed:
  • Isaac Kwesi Ofori
  • Camara Kwasi Obeng
  • Mark Kojo Armah

Abstract

The need for the Ghanaian government to generate enough revenue for development is becoming increasingly crucial in this era of slow growth, growing unemployment and high debt. However, tax revenue performance over the years reveals an unstable pattern. One key factor that has been overlooked in the literature in terms of the determinants of tax revenue is exchange rate volatility. Coming from the background of volatility in Ghana’s exchange rate, could it be the reason for the instability in the trend of tax revenue? This question is the subject matter of this study. To estimate the effect of exchange rate volatility on tax revenue, the study employed the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique after the yearly exchange rate volatilities had been generated using the GARCH(1,1) method. The results of the study suggest that exchange rate volatility has a deleterious effect on tax revenue both in the short-run and long-run but the effect is more pronounced in the long-run than the short-run. The study recommends that the Bank of Ghana step-up its exchange rate stabilization efforts to reduce exchange rate risk imposed on international trade players.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac Kwesi Ofori & Camara Kwasi Obeng & Mark Kojo Armah, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and tax revenue: Evidence from Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1537822-153, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:1537822
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2018.1537822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/23322039.2018.1537822
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/23322039.2018.1537822?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Sanjeev & Clements, Benedict & Bhattacharya, Rina & Chakravarti, Shamit, 2004. "Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low- and middle-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 403-421, June.
    2. Agbeyegbe, Terence D. & Stotsky, Janet & WoldeMariam, Asegedech, 2006. "Trade liberalization, exchange rate changes, and tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 261-284, April.
    3. Vito Tanzi & Mario I. Blejer, 1988. "Public Debt and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," International Economic Association Series, in: Kenneth J. Arrow & Michael J. Boskin (ed.), The Economics of Public Debt, chapter 8, pages 230-263, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, 1998. "Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Effects of Economic Policies and Corruption," IMF Working Papers 1998/135, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    6. Dora Benedek & Ernesto Crivelli & Sanjeev Gupta & Priscilla Muthoora, 2014. "Foreign Aid and Revenue: Still a Crowding-Out Effect?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(1), pages 67-96, March.
    7. Ronald G. Cummings & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Michael McKee & Benno Torgler, 2005. "Effects of Tax Morale on Tax Compliance: Experimental and Survey Evidence," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-29, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
    10. Vito Tanzi, 1989. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Level of Taxation and the Fiscal Balance in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 633-656, September.
    11. G De Vita & A Abbott, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Exports: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(1), pages 69-78, March.
    12. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    13. Baunsgaard, Thomas & Keen, Michael, 2010. "Tax revenue and (or?) trade liberalization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 563-577, October.
    14. repec:aer:wpaper:180 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Khattry, Barsha & Mohan Rao, J., 2002. "Fiscal Faux Pas?: An Analysis of the Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1431-1444, August.
    16. Joweria M. Teera & John Hudson, 2004. "Tax performance: a comparative study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 785-802.
    17. Virginia Fierro & Helmut Reisen, 1990. "Tax Revenue Implications of the Real Exchange Rate: Econometric Evidence from Korea and Mexico," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 12, OECD Publishing.
    18. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L. & Chambas, Gerard, 2001. "Exchange rate regimes and revenue performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 173-213, February.
    19. Franco-Rodriguez, Susana & Morrissey, Oliver & McGillivray, Mark, 1998. "Aid and the Public Sector in Pakistan: Evidence with Endogenous Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1241-1250, July.
    20. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    21. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2008. "The level and composition of tax revenue in developing countries: Evidence from unbalanced panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-617, October.
    22. Lotz, Joergen R & Morss, Elliott R, 1970. "A Theory of Tax Level Determinants for Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 328-341, April.
    23. Paul Alagidede & Muazu Ibrahim, 2017. "On the Causes and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 169-193, April.
    24. Ozturk, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 85-102.
    25. Mr. Alexander Pivovarsky & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Erwin H Tiongson, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Revenue Response: Does the Composition of Aid Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2003/176, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Jens Matthias Arnold, 2008. "Do Tax Structures Affect Aggregate Economic Growth?: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 643, OECD Publishing.
    27. Abbas Alavirad, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation on Government Revenue and Expenditure: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(4), pages 331-341, December.
    28. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Jungsuk Kim & Donghyun Park, 2015. "Tax Revenue Trends in Asia and Latin America: A Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 21755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky & Ms. Asegedech WoldeMariam, 1997. "Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1997/107, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    31. Lee, Young & Gordon, Roger H., 2005. "Tax structure and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1027-1043, June.
    32. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    33. Camara Kwasi Obeng, 2018. "Is the effect of exchange rate volatility on export diversification symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1460027-146, January.
    34. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Determinants of Tax Revenue Efforts in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/184, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ofori, Isaac K. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2022. "Repackaging FDI for Inclusive Growth: Nullifying Effects and Policy Relevant Thresholds of Governance," MPRA Paper 111359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ofori, Isaac K. & Asonngu, Simplice A., 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment, Governance and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 108178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Isaac K. Ofori & Pamela E. Ofori & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Towards Efforts to Enhance Tax Revenue Mobilisation in Africa: Exploring Synergies between Industrialisation and ICTs," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/058, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    4. Emmanuel Buabeng & Enock Kojo Ayesu & Opoku Adabor, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Performance of Manufacturing Firms: An Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Economics Literature, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 133-147, December.
    5. Mark K. Armah, 2024. "The effect of central bank credibility on economic growth and output volatility in inflation targeting regime," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 26(2), pages 619-640, August.
    6. Sinem Koçak, 2021. "Is Exchange Rate Volatility An Important Determinant Of Tax Revenues? Evidence From Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 24(81), pages 33-49, September.
    7. Ofori, Isaac Kwesi & Obeng, Camara Kwasi & Mwinlaaru, Yeltulme Pter, 2021. "Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Tax Revenue Performance In Sub-Saharan Africa," EconStor Preprints 233955, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Narayan Sethi & Saileja Mohanty & Sanhita Sucharita & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2020. "Tax Reform And Economic Growth Nexus In India: Evidence From The Cointegration And Rolling-Window Causality," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(06), pages 1699-1725, December.
    9. Thomas Habanabakize & Lerato Mothib & Precious Mncayi, 2021. "The Nexus between Government Revenue and Macroeconomic Indicators in South Africa," Eurasian Journal of Business and Management, Eurasian Publications, vol. 9(4), pages 258-267.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ofori, Isaac Kwesi & Obeng, Camara Kwasi & Mwinlaaru, Yeltulme Pter, 2021. "Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Tax Revenue Performance In Sub-Saharan Africa," EconStor Preprints 233955, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Manamba Epaphra & Lucas E. Kaaya, 2020. "Tax Revenue Effect of Sectoral Growth and Public Expenditure in Tanzania: An application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(3), pages 81-120, September.
    3. Brun, Jean-François & Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2017. "Does trade openness contribute to driving financing flows for development?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-06, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Maïmouna DIAKITE & Souleymane DIARRA & Sampawende J.-A. TAPSOBA & Tertius ZONGO, 2019. "Foreign Aid and Domestic Revenue Mobilization in Conflict-affected Countries," Working Papers P248, FERDI.
    5. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Effect of Development Aid on Tax Reform in Recipient-Countries: Does Trade Openness Matter?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Giulia Mascagni, 2014. "Aid and Taxation: Evidence from Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 7314, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Mr. Paulo Drummond & Mr. Wendell Daal & Mr. Nandini Srivastava & Mr. Luiz E Oliveira, 2012. "Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Norms and Key Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2012/108, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pamela E. Ofori & Isaac K. Ofori & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Towards efforts to enhance tax revenue mobilisation in Africa: Exploring the interaction between industrialisation and digital infrastructure," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/045, African Governance and Development Institute..
    9. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," CERDI Working papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    10. Isaac K. Ofori & Pamela E. Ofori & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Towards Efforts to Enhance Tax Revenue Mobilisation in Africa: Exploring Synergies between Industrialisation and ICTs," Research Africa Network Working Papers 21/058, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2019. "Financial Development and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: Investigating the International Trade and Economic Growth Channels," EconStor Preprints 206628, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Nurudeen Abu & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim & Joseph David & Musa Abdullahi Sakanko & Onyewuchi Amaechi Ben-Obi & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2022. "The Behaviour of Tax Revenue amid Corruption in Nigeria: Evidence from the Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 55-76.
    13. Adeniyi, Oluwatosin & Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Alagbada, Oladimeji, 2022. "Natural Resource Dependence and Tax Effort in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(1), pages 29-64, March.
    14. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar & Ali, Amjad, 2018. "Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Salar, Laleena & Zaman, Khalid & Khilji, Bashir Ahmad & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Lodhi, Mohammad Saeed, 2013. "The consequences of revenue gap in Pakistan: Unveiling the reality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 281-294.
    16. Compaoré, Ali, 2022. "Access-for-all to financial services: Non-resources tax revenue-harnessing opportunities in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-245.
    17. Emmanuel Ekow Asmah & Francis Kwaw Andoh & Edem Titriku, 2020. "Trade misinvoicing effects on tax revenue in sub‐Saharan Africa: The role of tax holidays and regulatory quality," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 649-672, December.
    18. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Does Poverty Matter for Tax Revenue Performance in Developing Countries?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(1), pages 7-38, June.
    19. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Financial development and tax revenue in developing countries: investigating the international trade channel," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, January.
    20. Djedje Hermann YOHOU & Michaël GOUJON & Bertrand LAPORTE & Samuel GUERINEAU, 2016. "Is Aid Unfriendly to Tax? African Evidence of Heterogeneous Direct and Indirect Effects," Working Papers 201608, CERDI.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:1537822. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/OAEF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.