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Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study on the Stagnation of Economic Growth

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Listed:
  • Judith Gold
  • Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
  • Miss Cornelia Staritz

Abstract

After a period of exceptionally strong economic performance, Guyana's growth has stagnated since 1998. The paper tries to identify the factors that can explain this dramatic deterioration in economic performance. The paper first attempts to explain the decline of growth with a growth accounting exercise which shows that there was a significant swing in total factor productivity, and than uses a panel regression framework to analyze the growth impact of changes in various factors. Finally, through a series of cross-country exercises, the paper shows that the primary reasons for the divergence between the economic performance of Guyana and other Caribbean, HIPC, and PRGF-eligible countries in 1998-2004 are a substantial decline in share of net foreign and private domestic investment in GDP, a decline in the labor force, and a less favorable political and institutional environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Judith Gold & Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Miss Cornelia Staritz, 2007. "Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study on the Stagnation of Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 2007/086, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/086
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Ebrima A Faal, 2003. "Currency Demand, the Underground Economy, and, Tax Evasion—The Case of Guyana," IMF Working Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Abdelhak Senhadji, 2000. "Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 1-6.
    3. Mr. Juan Zalduendo & Ms. Catia Batista, 2004. "Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?," IMF Working Papers 2004/203, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2006. "Emigration and Brain Drain: Evidence From the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2006/025, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Saleh M. Nsouli & Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Mr. Alex Mourmouras, 2004. "Institutions, Program Implementation, and Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2004/184, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    7. Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2005. "Stabilization, Debt, and Fiscal Policy in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2005/026, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. William Carrington & Ms. Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "How Big is the Brain Drain?," IMF Working Papers 1998/102, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Khan, Mohsin S & Kumar, Manmohan S, 1997. "Public and Private Investment and the Growth Process in Developing Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 69-88, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paiva, Pedro Henrique de Abreu & Bacha, Carlos José Caetano, 2019. "The gross domestic product (GDP) shares of the agriculture sector and the hydrocarbon and mining sector in the countries of South America between 1960 and 2014," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    2. Khemraj, Tarron & Hinova, Diana, 2011. "Elected Oligarchy and Economic Underdevelopment: The Case of Guyana," MPRA Paper 29733, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Grenade, Kari & Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2012. "Accelerating Guyana’s Growth Momentum," MPRA Paper 41960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tarron Khemraj, 2016. "The Political Economy of Guyana’s Underdevelopment," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 325-342, December.
    5. Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2020. "The impact of political instability on economic growth: the case of Guyana," MPRA Paper 103145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Khemraj, Tarron, 2007. "The missing link: the finance-growth nexus and the Guyanese growth stagnation," MPRA Paper 16342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Constantine, Collin, 2014. "Growth and Distribution: A Guyana Case Study," MPRA Paper 58882, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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