IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v05n012002p40_60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China

Author

Abstract

The importance of housing investment in the national economy and its rapid growth have become distinct characteristics of the Chinese economy in recent years. However, at the same time, there is a concern that the economic growth heavily dependent on housing investment may compromise the stability and the health of the national economy. Using Granger causality analysis, this paper examines the interaction between housing investment and economic growth as well as that between non-housing investment and economic growth. We find evidence that housing investment has a stronger short run effect on economic growth than non-housing investment. We also find that housing investment has a long run effect on economic growth while economic growth has a log run effect on both housing and non-housing investment. Our findings suggest that housing investment is an important factor for the short-term fluctuations of economic growth, with its growth stimulating the economic growth and its slumps leading to downside fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu Hongyu & Yun W. Park & Zheng Siqi, 2002. "The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 40-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:05:n:01:2002:p:40_60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/vol-5-no-1-the-interaction.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    2. Fang, Cheng & Zhang, Xiaobo & Fan, Shenggen, 2002. "Emergence of urban poverty and inequality in China: evidence from household survey," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 430-443, December.
    3. Liu Hongyu, 1998. "Government Intervention and Performance of the Housing Sector in Urban China," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 127-149.
    4. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul, 2000. "Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 601-620, December.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    6. N. Edward Coulson & Myeong-Soo Kim, 2000. "Residential Investment, Non-residential Investment and GDP," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 233-247.
    7. Brito, Paulo M. B. & Pereira, Alfredo M., 2002. "Housing and Endogenous Long-Term Growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 246-271, March.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    9. Edwin S. Mills, 1987. "Has the United States Overinvested in Housing?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 601-616, March.
    10. Braid, Ralph M., 2001. "Spatial Growth and Redevelopment with Perfect Foresight and Durable Housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 425-452, May.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. Yi Wen, 2001. "Residential Investment and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 2(2), pages 437-444, November.
    13. Richard K. Green, 1997. "Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Non‐residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-270, June.
    14. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1001, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Zhang, Wei-Bin, 1994. "Capital, population and urban patterns," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 273-286, April.
    16. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2003. "Economic Growth And Increasing House Prices," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 183-190, June.
    17. Madsen, Jakob B., 2002. "The causality between investment and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 157-163, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael, Bryane & Zhao, Simon, 2016. "Bubble Economics How Big a Shock to China’s Real Estate Sector Will Throw the Country into Recession, and Why Does It Matter?," EconStor Preprints 141314, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Jing Li & Ying Xu, 2016. "Evaluating restrictive measures containing housing prices in China: A data envelopment analysis approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(12), pages 2654-2669, September.
    3. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing prices : a case study of Chinese experience in 1999-2010," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2021. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE‐VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3269-3305, July.
    5. Hakkı Kutay Bolkol, 2015. "Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 4(3), pages 42-53, July.
    6. I-Chun Tsai & Shu-Hen Chiang, 2018. "Risk Transfer among Housing Markets in Major Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Yuekai Cheng & Hongyi Li & Qi Sun & Yu Wang, 2019. "A Model of Household Savings and Alternative Investments in Rural China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(2), pages 145-162, Summer.
    8. Basakha, Mehdi & Hossein Mohaqeqi Kamal, Seyed, 2019. "Industrial development and social welfare: A case study of Iran," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2010. "Is There a Bubble in the Chinese Housing Market?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1081, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Chen Zhu & Da Zhao & Zhiyi Qiu, 2019. "Internal and External Effect of Estate Investment upon Regional Innovation in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 513-530, February.
    11. Nuri Hacıevliyagil & Krzysztof Drachal & Ibrahim Halil Eksi, 2022. "Predicting House Prices Using DMA Method: Evidence from Turkey," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-27, March.
    12. Shi, Song & Zhang, Hong & Zhang, Jun, 2022. "The impact of a home purchase restrictions (HPR) policy on the distressed property market in Beijing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    13. Kazuya Tani & Yoshiyuki Kikuchi & Hideo Takaoka & Shubin Lin, 2014. "Housing Acquisition Process for Public Housing and Commodity Housing in Shanghai: A Survey of Residents," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(3), pages 415-444.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Wensheng Peng & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study," Working Papers 052007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing prices: a case study of Chinese experience in 1999-2010," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Xiaolong Liu & Weidong Qu, 2015. "Winner's Curse or Signaling? Bidding Outcomes in the Chinese Land Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 113-129.
    18. Atrayee Ghosh Roy, 2018. "Infrastructure Investment and the Indian Economy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 29-38.
    19. KWON, Heeeun & HWANG, Beom Seuk, 2023. "Do Spatial Characteristics Affect Housing Prices in Korea? : Evidence from Bayesian Spatial Models," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 64(2), pages 109-124, December.
    20. Erol, Isil & Unal, Umut, 2015. "Role of Construction Sector in Economic Growth: New Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 68263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Honghao Ren & Henk Folmer & Arno Vlist, 2014. "What role does the real estate–construction sector play in China’s regional economy?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(3), pages 839-857, May.
    22. Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. R. Brooks, 2006. "What’s Driving Investment in China?," IMF Working Papers 2006/265, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Vusal Murselzade & Behiye Cavusoglu, 2021. "Relationship between the Service Sector and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Asian Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 8(1), pages 15-22.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    2. Ricardo Sabates Land Tenure Center & UW-Madison, 2001. "The Dynamics of U.S. GDP and Investment Sub-Components," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 01-05, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    3. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    4. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, October.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    6. T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen & Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Causality between housing returns, inflation and economic growth with endogenous breaks," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 95-115.
    7. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    8. Tarlok Singh, 2016. "On the sectoral linkages and pattern of economic growth in India," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 257-275, April.
    9. Phylaktis, Kate & Chen, Long, 2009. "Price discovery in foreign exchange markets: A comparison of indicative and actual transaction prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 640-654, September.
    10. Kausik Chaudhuri & Alok Kumar, 2015. "A Markov-Switching Model for Indian Stock Price and Volume," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(3), pages 239-257, December.
    11. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    13. Pierre Siklos & Ben Kwok, 1999. "Stock returns and inflation: a new test of competing hypotheses," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 567-581.
    14. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Housing and the Great Depression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2966-2981, August.
    16. Thomas B. Götz & Alain W. Hecq, 2019. "Granger Causality Testing in Mixed‐Frequency VARs with Possibly (Co)Integrated Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 914-935, November.
    17. Apergis, Nicholas & Artikis, Panagiotis G. & Kyriazis, Dimitrios, 2015. "Does stock market liquidity explain real economic activity? New evidence from two large European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 42-64.
    18. Le Fur, Eric, 2020. "Dynamics of the global fine art market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 167-180.
    19. repec:wyi:journl:002065 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Zhang, Jianhong & Jacobs, Jan & Witteloostuijn, Arjen van, 2004. "Multinational enterprises, foreign direct investment and trade in China : A cointegration and Granger-causality approach," CCSO Working Papers 200413, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    21. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; housing investment; non-housing investment; Granger causality; cointegration; error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:05:n:01:2002:p:40_60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.