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Will You Buy My Peg? the Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Trade

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  • Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk
  • Mr. Bernhard Fritz-Krockow

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between fixed exchange rate arrangements and trade using a gravity model of international trade together with bilateral trade data from 24 countries from the Caribbean and Latin America for the period 1960-2001. The analysis indicates that a credible fixed peg has a positive impact on the value of bilateral trade. Moreover, the positive impact on trade is more pronounced with a stricter definition of the fixed peg or a longer duration of the peg. This supports the argument that the credibility of an exchange rate peg is an important element to determine bilateral trade. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that a currency union provides additional benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk & Mr. Bernhard Fritz-Krockow, 2004. "Will You Buy My Peg? the Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Trade," IMF Working Papers 2004/165, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/165
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Trade," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 44-63, September.
    2. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2013. "Regímenes cambiarios y desempeño macroeconómico: Una evaluación de la literatura," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 101-119.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "Monetary commitment and structural reforms: a dynamic panel analysis for transition economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 375-392, September.
    4. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Hard or Soft Pegs? Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Trade in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 667-680.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0347 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Exchange-rate regime and economic growth: a review of the theoretical and empirical literature," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-31, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2008. "Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes for MENA countries: Gravity Model Estimates of the Trade Effects," CERT Discussion Papers 0803, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    8. Santana-Gallego, Maria & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V., 2019. "International trade, exchange rate regimes, and financial crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 85-95.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Lukas Vogel, 2012. "Monetary Commitment and Structural Reforms – A Dynamic Panel Analysis for Transition Economies," Ruhr Economic Papers 0347, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Institutions: Lessons from World Experience for MENA Countries," Working Papers 1311, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    11. Petreski, Marjan, 2009. "Analysis of exchange-rate regime effect on growth: theoretical channels and empirical evidence with panel data," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade: Is Africa Different?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-014, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Karim Ameziane & Bouchra Benyacoub, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility Effect on Economic Growth under Different Exchange Rate Regimes: New Evidence from Emerging Countries Using Panel CS-ARDL Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, October.

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