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Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status

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  • Mr. Yaroslav D Lissovolik
  • Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik

Abstract

With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization's most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this "outsider" status has been affecting Russia's export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995-2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model's predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia's exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia's further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may resolve the recent empirical controversy over the WTO's overall role in promoting trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Yaroslav D Lissovolik & Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik, 2004. "Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status," IMF Working Papers 2004/159, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/159
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
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    6. Eromenko, Igor & Mankovska, Nadiya & Dean, James W, 2003. "Will WTO membership really improve market access for Ukrainian exports?," MPRA Paper 67481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:bla:scotjp:v:49:y:2002:i:5:p:574-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alexander Alekseev & Natalia Tourdyeva & Ksenia Yudaeva, 2003. "Estimation of the Russia’s trade policy options with the help of the Computable General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers w0042, New Economic School (NES).
    9. David Greenaway & Chris Milner, 2002. "Regionalism and Gravity," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 574-585, November.
    10. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Barbara Oegg, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on US Trade: Andrew Rose's Gravity Model," Policy Briefs PB03-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pomfret, Richard, 2005. "Trade policies in Central Asia after EU enlargement and before Russian WTO accession: Regionalism and integration into the world economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 32-58, March.
    2. David Greenaway & Aruneema Mahabir & Chris Milner, 2010. "Has China Displaced Other Asian Countries’ Exports?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Greenaway & Chris Milner & Shujie Yao (ed.), China and the World Economy, chapter 4, pages 60-90, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Sergey Kolesnikov & Olga Podkorytova, 2011. "Russia's Trade Flows and WTO," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2011/06, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics, revised 01 Jul 2011.
    4. Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello, 2005. "Regional Trade Integration and WTO Accession: Which Is the Right Sequencing? An Application to the CIS," IMF Working Papers 2005/094, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sergey Kolesnikov & Olga Podkorytova, 2011. "Russia's Trade Flows and WTO," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_068, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    6. Ludvig, Zsuzsa, 2013. "Oroszország új világgazdasági szerepben? [Is Russias role in the world economy changing?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1090-1118.

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