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Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

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  • Mr. Norbert Funke
  • Mr. Akimi Matsuda

Abstract

Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze the impact of a broad set of macroeconomic news on stock prices in the United States and Germany. With GARCH specifications we test five hypotheses and find that news on real economic activity has a significant impact on stock prices. The effects vary between different types of stocks and depend on the state of the economy. In a boom period, bad economic news may be good news for stock prices. For German stock prices, international news is at least as important as domestic news. The analysis of bihourly data suggests that the main effect occurs within a short period of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Norbert Funke & Mr. Akimi Matsuda, 2002. "Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany," IMF Working Papers 2002/239, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Imane El Ouadghiri & Valérie Mignon & Nicolas Boitout, 2014. "On the impact of macroeconomic news surprises on Treasury-bond yields," Working Papers hal-04141345, HAL.
    2. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:381-396 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Werner, Thomas & Stapf, Jelena, 2003. "How wacky is the DAX? The changing structure of German stock market volatility," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Deimante Teresiene, 2009. "Lithuanian stock market analysis using a set of Garch models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 349-360, August.
    5. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Thiewes, Harold, 2008. "The effect of macroeconomic news on German closed-end funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 708-724, November.

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