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Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?

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  • Mr. Jean-Claude Berthélemy
  • Mr. Ludvig Söderling

Abstract

This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jean-Claude Berthélemy & Mr. Ludvig Söderling, 2002. "Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?," IMF Working Papers 2002/131, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "The Mauritian Success Story and its Lessons," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-36, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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