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Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments: A Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises

Author

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  • Miss Liliana B Schumacher
  • Mr. Mario I. Bléjer

Abstract

A loss of solvency increases central bank vulnerability, reducing the credibility of commitments to defend a nominal regime, including an exchange rate peg. This paper develops a methodology to assess central bank solvency and exposure to risk. The measure, based on Value-at-Risk, is frequently used to evaluate commercial risk. The paper emphasizes that the ability to sustain nominal commitments cannot be gauged by focusing only on selected accounts (such as reserves), but requires a comprehensive solvency and vulnerability analysis of the monetary authorities’ complete portfolio (including off-balance-sheet operations). The suggested measure has powerful reporting value and its disclosure could improve monitoring of sovereign solvency risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Liliana B Schumacher & Mr. Mario I. Bléjer, 1998. "Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments: A Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 1998/065, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1998/065
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    Cited by:

    1. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias, 2021. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139.
    2. Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Linking financial soundness and independence of central banks--Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey and CIS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 239-255, June.
    3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "A balance‐sheet approach to fiscal sustainability," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 61-84, March.
    4. David Archer & Paul Moser-Boehm, 2013. "Central bank finances," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 71.
    5. Anne-Marie Rieu-Foucault, 2018. "Les interventions de crise de la FED et de la BCE diffèrent-elles ?," Working Papers hal-04141702, HAL.
    6. Mr. Alain Ize, 2005. "Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach," IMF Working Papers 2005/015, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Contreras, P. & Satchell, S.E., 2003. "A Bayesian Confidence Interval for Value-at-Risk," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0348, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Christoffersen, Peter & Errunza, Vihang, 2000. "Towards a global financial architecture: capital mobility and risk management issues," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-20, May.
    9. Mr. Peter Stella, 2002. "Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2002/137, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ante Babić & Ante Žigman, 2001. "Currency Crises: Theoretical and Empirical Overview of the 1990s," Surveys 5, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. repec:cuf:journl:y:2014:v:15:i:2:abiad is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Knedlik, Tobias & Scheufele, Rolf, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2007, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Jäger, Jannik & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2017. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: Comparative evidence from crisis and non-crisis Euro-area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 21-43.
    14. Frederico Pechir Gomes & Marcelo Yoshio Takami & Vinicius Ratton Brandi, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers Series 174, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Winkler, Adalbert, 2001. "On the need for an international lender of last resort: Lessons from domestic financial markets," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 28, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Federico Sturzenegger & Nicolás Der Meguerditchian, 2022. "A Balance-Sheet Model of Fiscal Policy in Namibia," Working Papers 136, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    17. Luca Papi, 2011. "Central bank capital adequacy for central banks with or without a monetary policy," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 49, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    18. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Forecasting Currency Crises: Which Methods Signaled The South African Crisis Of June 2006?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 367-383, September.
    20. González, M. & Minguez, R., 2005. "The Method Of Simulated Maximum Likelihood For The Estimaton Of Dynamic Ordered Probit: An Application To Country-Risk For Non-Developed Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 99-133.

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