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Optimal discretionary monetary policy in a micro-founded model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rate

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  • Ngo, Phuong V.

Abstract

This paper investigates optimal discretionary monetary policy under the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate (ZLB) in the case of a distorted steady state due to monopoly and taxation. Solving a fully nonlinear micro-founded (FNL) model using a global method, I find that the central bank in a more distorted economy would cut the interest rate less aggressively under a particularly adverse demand shock. This occurs because inflation and nominal interest rates are higher on average, making the ZLB less likely to bind and causing the economy to escape from the ZLB sooner. However, the social planner would choose the optimal inflation rate of approximately zero. The result emerges because the unconditional benefit of avoiding the ZLB is not big enough to offset the cost of higher relative price dispersion when inflation is significantly positive. In addition, I show that the conventional linear-quadratic (LQ) method is inaccurate in the case of a sufficiently distorted steady state.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngo, Phuong V., 2014. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in a micro-founded model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 44-65.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:44-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.05.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Leeper, Eric M. & Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2021. "Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary, Fiscal and Debt Maturity Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 600-617.
    2. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2016. "Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers halshs-01661908, HAL.
    3. Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2016. "The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 283-297.
    4. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2016. "The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 630-651, June.
    6. Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2015. "Parameter bias in an estimated DSGE model: does nonlinearity matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2023. "The Natural Rate of Interest in a Non-linear DSGE Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 301-340, March.
    9. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 51-104, March.
    10. Miao, Jianjun & Ngo, Phuong V., 2021. "Does Calvo Meet Rotemberg At The Zero Lower Bound?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 1090-1111, June.
    11. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 186-221, July.
    12. Alstadheim, Ragna, 2016. "The zero lower bound on the interest rate and a Neoclassical Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 116-130.
    13. Nakata, Taisuke, 2016. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with occasionally binding zero bound constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 220-240.
    14. Ngo, Phuong V., 2015. "Household leverage, housing markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 191-207.
    15. Ngo, Phuong V., 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers At The Zero Lower Bound: The Role Of Government Spending Persistence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 970-997, June.
    16. Atkinson, Tyler & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2020. "The zero lower bound and estimation accuracy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 249-264.
    17. Maksim Isakin & Phuong V. Ngo, 2020. "Variance Decomposition Analysis for Nonlinear Economic Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1362-1374, December.
    18. Shu‐Hua Chen, 2018. "The Credit‐Channel Transmission Mechanism And The Nonlinear Growth And Welfare Effects Of Inflation And Taxes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 724-744, April.
    19. Maksim Isakin & Phuong V. Ngo, 2022. "Multiplicity in New Keynesian Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 505-521, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal discretionary monetary policy; ZLB; Distorted steady state; Optimal inflation rate; Calvo price adjustments; Nonlinear method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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