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Determinants of Households' Inflation Expectations

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  • Kozo Ueda

    (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Deputy Director and Economist, Bank of Japan (Email: kouzou.ueda @boj.or.jp))

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. We estimate a vector autoregression model in which the four endogenous variables are inflation expectations, inflation, the short-term nominal interest rate and the output gap, with energy prices and (fresh) food prices being exogenous. Short-term nonrecursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous codependence between realized inflation and expected inflation. We find, first, that responding not only to changes in energy prices and food prices but also to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. This explains why Japanese and US data indicate that inflation expectations lead realized inflation. Second, the effects of changes in energy prices and food prices on inflation and inflation expectations are large in the short run in Japan, while in the United States, they are not only large but also long lasting. Third, shocks to expectations occasionally fluctuate greatly, and can have self-fulfilling effects on realized inflation. The self-fulfilling property is more apparent in the United States than in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Kozo Ueda, 2009. "Determinants of Households' Inflation Expectations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:09-e-08
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    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/09-E-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-231.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expected inflation; structured vector autoregression; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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