IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iim/iimawp/14241.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Result in Greater Access to Essential Medicines? Study of the impact of drug price control order on sales volume of drugs in India

Author

Listed:
  • Sahay, Arvind
  • Jaikumar, Saravana

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically examine whether price regulation of generic essential drugs in India results in social welfare (in terms of increase in sales volume post regulation). In 2013, the Indian government enacted the Drug Price Control (DPCO) which regulated the prices of essential medicines. Using historical monthly sales volume data, we identify the best fitting SARIMA (seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average) model for each of the 105 oral solid molecules included in DPCO 2013. Using these models and following the event study approach we statistically compare the baseline against the actual volume during event window. We find that while DPCO resulted in an increase in sales volume for few molecules, overall the regulation has resulted in a reduction in sales volume. On further analysis, we find that increasing the detailing efforts for molecules with high percentage sales in urban and semi-urban cities may likely result in positive DPCO impact. Our findings have significant policy and marketing implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahay, Arvind & Jaikumar, Saravana, 2016. "Does Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Result in Greater Access to Essential Medicines? Study of the impact of drug price control order on sales volume of drugs in India," IIMA Working Papers WP2016-02-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:14241
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iima.ac.in/sites/default/files/rnpfiles/2217512512016-02-01.pdf
    File Function: English Version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aye, Goodness & Gupta, Rangan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kim, Won Joong, 2015. "Forecasting the price of gold using dynamic model averaging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 257-266.
    2. repec:spr:pharme:v:28:y:2010:i:8:p:649-663 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. John A. Vernon, 2005. "Examining the link between price regulation and pharmaceutical R&D investment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli K. Segnon, 2015. "Forecasting the price of gold," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(39), pages 4141-4152, August.
    5. A. Ahrens & T. V. Kovandzic & L. M. Vieraitis, 2015. "Do execution moratoriums increase homicide? Re-examining evidence from Illinois," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(31), pages 3243-3257, July.
    6. Corrado, Charles J. & Zivney, Terry L., 1992. "The Specification and Power of the Sign Test in Event Study Hypothesis Tests Using Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 465-478, September.
    7. Joseph Golec & John Vernon, 2010. "Financial Effects of Pharmaceutical Price Regulation on R&D Spending by EU versus US Firms," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 28(8), pages 615-628, August.
    8. Abbott, Thomas III, 1995. "Price regulation in the pharmaceutical industry: Prescription or placebo?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 551-565, December.
    9. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    10. Thomas A. Abbott & John A. Vernon, 2007. "The cost of US pharmaceutical price regulation: a financial simulation model of R&D decisions," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4-5), pages 293-306.
    11. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    12. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rupali Kumar & Mahika Milind Joshi & Rajat Jagdish Palod & Sreedhar Dharmagadda, 2022. "Does India need a new pharmaceutical policy? Examining the implications of the drug price control order," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 3028-3038, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastien Bradley & Estelle Dauchy & Makoto Hasegawa, 2018. "Investor valuations of Japan’s adoption of a territorial tax regime: quantifying the direct and competitive effects of international tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 581-630, June.
    2. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
    3. Kiesel, Florian & Ries, Jörg M. & Tielmann, Artur, 2017. "Reprint of “The impact of mergers and acquisitions on shareholders' wealth in the logistics service industry”," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 261-277.
    4. Barbaglia, Luca & Bellia, Mario & Di Girolamo, Francesca & Rho, Caterina, 2024. "Crypto news and policy innovations: Are European markets affected?," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2024-07, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    5. John Jackson & Audrey Kline & Sarah Skinner, 2006. "The Impact of Non-Normality and Misspecification on Merger Event Studies," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 247-264.
    6. Restrepo-Ochoa, Diana Constanza & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2020. "The impact of forced divestments on parent company stock prices: Buy on the rumor, sell on the news?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Andritzky, Jochen & Jobst, Andreas & Nowak, Sylwia & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2012. "Market response to policy initiatives during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 162-177.
    8. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Gupta, Rangan & Das, Sonali, 2018. "Predicting global temperature anomaly: A definitive investigation using an ensemble of twelve competing forecasting models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 121-139.
    9. Julia Lackmann & Jürgen Ernstberger & Michael Stich, 2012. "Market Reactions to Increased Reliability of Sustainability Information," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 107(2), pages 111-128, May.
    10. Giuliana Birindelli & Helen Chiappini, 2021. "Climate change policies: Good news or bad news for firms in the European Union?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 831-848, March.
    11. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Filis, George & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Forecasting accuracy evaluation of tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-127.
    12. Manuel Ammann & Kristian Blickle & Christian Ehmann, 2017. "Announcement Effects of Contingent Convertible Securities: Evidence from the Global Banking Industry," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), pages 127-152, January.
    13. Markus Merz & Jan Riepe, 2021. "SMEs with legally restricted banking access: evidence from the US marijuana industry," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(6), pages 797-849, August.
    14. Kiesel, Florian & Ries, Jörg M. & Tielmann, Artur, 2017. "The impact of mergers and acquisitions on shareholders' wealth in the logistics service industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 781-797.
    15. Bayly, Nicholas & Breunig, Robert & Wokker, Chris, 2023. "Female Board Representation and Corporate Performance: A Review and New Estimates for Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 16617, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Maul, D. & Schiereck, D., 2017. "The bond event study methodology since 1974," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80723, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    17. Sascha Wilkens & Jens Wimschulte, 2005. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with 2003’s Major Reorganization of German Stock Indices," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(1), pages 61-98, June.
    18. Pedro L. Angosto‐Fernández & Victoria Ferrández‐Serrano, 2022. "Independence day: Political risk and cross‐sectional determinants of firm exposure after the Catalan crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4318-4335, October.
    19. Tang, Haodan & Fang, Senhui & Jiang, Dianchun, 2022. "The market value effect of digital mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Stephen G. Hall & Amangeldi Kenjegaliev, 2017. "The effect of oil price changes on the price of Russian and Chinese oil shares," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1639-1656, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:14241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eciimin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.