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Assets Returns Volatility and Investment Horizon: The French Case

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  • Bec, Frédérique
  • Gollier, Christian

Abstract

This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The VAR parameters estimates are then used to compute real returns conditional volatility across investment horizons. The results reveal the same kind of horizon effect as the one found in recent empirical studies using quarterly U.S. data. More specifically, the excess annualized standard deviation of French stocks returns with respect to bills and bonds returns decreases as the investment horizon grows. They suggest that long-horizon investors overstate the share of bonds in their portfolio choice when neglecting the horizon effect on risk of asset returns predictability.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bec, Frédérique & Gollier, Christian, 2006. "Assets Returns Volatility and Investment Horizon: The French Case," IDEI Working Papers 467, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 30 Nov 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:7289
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    Cited by:

    1. Spaenjers, Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2015. "Subjective life horizon and portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 94-106.
    2. Gollier, C., 2015. "Long-term savings: the case of life insurance in France," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 19, pages 129-136, April.
    3. Thomas Url, 2009. "Die volkswirtschaftliche Rolle von Investmentfonds und die Ertragschancen langfristiger Aktienveranlagungen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37583, April.
    4. Liu, Qiang & Xiang, Yun & Zhao, Yonghong, 2019. "An outperforming investment strategy under fractional Brownian motion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 505-515.
    5. Fischer, Katharina & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2012. "Optimal investment strategies for insurance companies in the presence of standardised capital requirements," ICIR Working Paper Series 09/12, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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