IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/idb/brikps/11353.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions

Author

Listed:
  • Ayres, JoaÞo
  • Raveendranathan, Gajendran

Abstract

We analyze shocks to productivity, collateral constraint (credit shock), firm operation, and labor disutility in a model of firm dynamics with entry and exit. Shocks to firm operation and labor disutility capture COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared to the productivity shock, the credit and the lockdown shocks generate larger changes in firm entry and exit. The credit shock accounts for lower entry, higher exit, and concentration of exit among young firms during the Great Recession. The lockdown shocks predict a large fall in entry and rise in exit followed by a sharp rebound. In both recessions, changes in entry and exit account for 10-20 percent of the fall in output and hours. Finally, we discuss how the modeling of potential entrants matters for the quantitative results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayres, JoaÞo & Raveendranathan, Gajendran, 2021. "Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 11353, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:11353
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Firm-Entry-and-Exit-during-Recessions.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003356?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 392-397, May.
    2. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(6), pages 1055-1107.
    3. Lee, Yoonsoo & Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2018. "A model of entry, exit, and plant-level dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-25.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    5. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    6. Petr Sedláček & Vincent Sterk, 2017. "The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3182-3210, October.
    7. Rogerson, Richard & Wallenius, Johanna, 2009. "Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2277-2292, November.
    8. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    9. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    10. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    11. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    12. Teresa C Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 520-559, August.
    13. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn.
    14. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    15. Hopenhayn, Hugo & Rogerson, Richard, 1993. "Job Turnover and Policy Evaluation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 915-938, October.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59cr4u3mmr9pobrceptvua5g8c is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
    18. Francisco Buera & Roberto Fattal-Jaef & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Anatomy of a Credit Crunch: From Capital to Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 101-117, January.
    19. Thomas Winberry, 2021. "Lumpy Investment, Business Cycles, and Stimulus Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 364-396, January.
    20. Julia K. Thomas & Aubhik Khan, 2011. "Default Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," 2011 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Michael Siemer, 2019. "Employment Effects of Financial Constraints during the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 16-29, March.
    22. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Erratum: Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1186-1186, April.
    23. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
    24. Nicolas Crouzet & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2020. "Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3549-3601, November.
    25. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    26. Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2002. "The Longitudinal Business Database," Working Papers 02-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    27. Sebastian Dyrda, 2015. "Fluctuations in uncertainty, efficient borrowing constraints and firm dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1243, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Peter Klenow & Huiyu Li & Albert Bollard, 2013. "Entry Costs Rise with Development," 2013 Meeting Papers 471, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Nikolova, Milena & Tyurina, Elena, 2022. "COVID-19 and entrepreneurship entry and exit: Opportunity amidst adversity," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joao Ayres & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2023. "Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 47-66, January.
    2. Joao Ayres & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2018. "The Firm Dynamics of Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-16, McMaster University.
    3. Smirnyagin, Vladimir, 2023. "Returns to scale, firm entry, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 118-134.
    4. Yicheng Wang, 2017. "Debt-Market Friction, Firm-specific Knowledge Capital Accumulation and Macroeconomic Implications," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 19-39, October.
    5. Miguel H. Ferreira, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Corporate Bond Holdings by Nonfinancial Firms," Working Papers 967, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.
    7. Alex Clymo & Filip Rozsypal, 2022. "Firm Cyclicality and Financial Frictions," Discussion Papers 2207, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Stephen J. Terry, 2017. "Alternative Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Firm Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1081-1111, September.
    9. Di Nola, Alessandro, 2015. "Capital Misallocation during the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 68289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Marco Bassetto & Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2015. "Credit Crunches and Credit Allocation in a Model of Entrepreneurship," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 53-76, January.
    11. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    12. Taejun Lim, 2018. "Housing as Collateral, Financial Constraints, and Small Businesses," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 68-85, October.
    13. Shuhei Takahashi, 2020. "Time-Varying Wage Risk, Incomplete Markets, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 195-213, July.
    14. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    15. In Hwan Jo & Tatsuro Senga, 2019. "Aggregate Consequences of Credit Subsidy Policies: Firm Dynamics and Misallocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 68-93, April.
    16. Xiao, J., 2016. "Corporate Debt Structure, Precautionary Savings, and Investment Dynamics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1666, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Vladimir Smirnyagin, 2020. "Compositional Nature of Firm Growth and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 20-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. Singh, Aarti & Suda, Jacek & Zervou, Anastasia, 2021. "Heterogeneous labour market response to monetary policy: small versus large firms," Working Papers 2021-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2021.
    19. Ia Vardishvili, 2020. "Entry Decision, the Option to Delay Entry, and Business Cycles," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    20. Poeschl, Johannes, 2023. "Corporate debt maturity and investment over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm dynamics; general equilibrium model; COVID-19; recession; lockdown; COVID-19; COVID-19; COVID-19; COVID-19; Creditshock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:11353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Felipe Herrera Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iadbbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.