IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ice/wpaper/wp65.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Should Icelandic pension funds hedge currency risk in their foreign investments?

Author

Listed:
  • Ásgeir Daníelsson

Abstract

This paper discusses efficient hedging of currency risk in foreign investments through short term forward contracts. It is shown that for long term investors the efficient level of currency hedging depends on the behaviour of the exchange rate. If the exchange rate follows random walk the efficient hedging of the currency risk may be as large as it is for the short term investor, or possibly larger, but if the exchange rate follows a stationary stochastic process efficient hedging of the long term currency risk through short term forward contracts is zero in most cases. It is also shown that pass through of changes in the exchange rate into inflation forms a partial hedge for an investor that considers the real return and its volatility rather than the nominal return, diminishing the efficient level of forward currency contracts. It is shown that it is possible to use forward currency contracts for speculative investments. These contracts are profitable investment opportunities if the interest rate differential exceeds the expected change in the exchange rate. This same condition motivated the carry trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2014. "Should Icelandic pension funds hedge currency risk in their foreign investments?," Economics wp65, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    • Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp65
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cb.is/library/Skr%C3%A1arsafn---EN/Working-Papers/WP65%20august4%20-.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth A. Froot, 2019. "Currency Hedging Over Long Horizons," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 37-66, May.
    2. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    3. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    4. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    5. Naohiko Baba & Yasuaki Amatatsu, 2008. "Price discovery from cross-currency and FX swaps: a structural analysis," BIS Working Papers 264, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Lillie Lam & Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Comparing Forecast Performance of Exchange Rate Models," Working Papers 0808, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    7. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
    8. Bailey, Warren & Ng, Edward & Stulz, Rene M., 1992. "Optimal hedging of stock portfolios against foreign exchange risk: theory and applications," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-113.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
    2. Kunkler, Michael, 2021. "Currency hedging for single-currency equity portfolios: Does cross-asset risk matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Lucey, Brian & Yahya, Muhammad & Khoja, Layla & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ahmed, Ali, 2024. "Interconnectedness and risk profile of hydrogen against major asset classes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Su, EnDer, 2013. "Stock index hedge using trend and volatility regime switch model considering hedging cost," MPRA Paper 49190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2010. "Analysis of movements in the AUD/USD exchange rate: comparison of four major models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 575-580.
    7. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
    8. Kari Heimonen, 2009. "The euro–dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    9. Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj & Thi-Hong-Van Hoang, 2019. "Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: perspectives for portfolio diversification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1117-1144, March.
    10. Arun Muralidhar & Masakazu Arikawa, 2007. "Hedging Currency Risk In International Investment And Trade," CARF F-Series CARF-F-090, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Zied Ftiti & Slim Chaouachi, 2018. "What Can We Learn About the Real Exchange Rate Behavior in the Case of a Peripheral Country?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(3), pages 681-707, September.
    12. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2018. "Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 519-540, August.
    13. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Brahim, Mariem & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mensi, Walid, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    14. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2012. "A utility based approach to energy hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 817-827.
    15. Shahid, Muhammad Naeem & Azmi, Wajahat & Ali, Mohsin & Islam, Muhammad Umar & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2023. "Uncovering risk transmission between socially responsible investments, alternative energy investments and the implied volatility of major commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    16. Dangl, Thomas & Randl, Otto & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Risk control in asset management: Motives and concepts," CFS Working Paper Series 546, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    17. Ali, Sajid & Raza, Naveed & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Le, Van, 2022. "Modelling the joint dynamics of financial assets using MGARCH family models: Insights into hedging and diversification strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Dong, Xiyong & Li, Changhong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "How can investors build a better portfolio in small open economies? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Rey, Serge, 2009. "L’apport du NATREX à la modélisation des taux de change d’équilibre : théorie et application au dollar canadien," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(2), pages 131-181, juin.
    20. Chamberlain, Sandra & Howe, John S. & Popper, Helen, 1997. "The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 871-892, June.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Central Bank of Iceland (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedgvis.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.