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Metamodels and Nonpoint Pollution Policy in Agriculture

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Informed debate on agricultural nonpoint pollution requires evaluation of regional water quality in relation to management practices. It is prohibitive, in terms of cost and time, to run the site-specific process models for regional policy analysis. Therefore, a simplified and robust technique--metamodeling--is suggested to evaluate regional water quality. Data from an experimentally designed simulation of complex surface water and groundwater process models, PRZM and STREAM, are used to develop statistically validated metamodels. The estimated metamodels were integrated with a regional agricultural economic decision making model to evaluate the surface water and groundwater loadings of 16 major corn and sorghum herbicides. Spatial probability distributions are derived for herbicide concentrations exceeding the toxicity-weighted benchmark from the EPA. We estimate that 1.2 percent of the regional soils will lead to groundwater detection of atrazine exceeding 0.12 ?/L, which compares well with the findings of the EPA's groundwater monitoring survey. We find no-till practices to significantly reduce the surface water concentration of atrazine and other herbicides with less impact on groundwater contamination suggesting indirect gains to soil conservation policies. But we also note that an atrazine ban could lead to increased soil erosion, even with the conservation compliance provisions fully incorporated.

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  • Aziz Bouzaher & Richard Cabe & Alicia L. Carriquiry & Philip W. Gassman & P. G. Lakshminarayan & Jason F. Shogren, 1992. "Metamodels and Nonpoint Pollution Policy in Agriculture," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 92-wp97, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:92-wp97
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    1. Eli Feinerman & Meira Falkovitz, 1997. "Optimal Scheduling of Nitrogen Fertilization and Irrigation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 11(2), pages 101-117, April.
    2. Ribaudo, Marc & Bouzaher, Aziz, 1994. "Atrazine: Environmental Characteristics and Economics of Management," Agricultural Economic Reports 34011, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Bouzaher, Aziz & Shogren, Jason F. & Holtkamp, Derald & Gassman, Philip & Archer, David & Lakshminarayan, P. & Carriquiry, Alicia & Reese, Randall & Furtan, William H. & Izaurralde, R. Cèsar & Kiniry,, 1994. "Agricultural Policies and Soil Degradation in Western Canada: An Agro-Ecological Economic Assessment (Report 3: The Integration of the Environmental and Economic Components)," Technical Reports 243854, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    4. Galelli, S. & Gandolfi, C. & Soncini-Sessa, R. & Agostani, D., 2010. "Building a metamodel of an irrigation district distributed-parameter model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 187-200, February.
    5. JunJie Wu & Bruce Babcock, 2001. "Spatial Heterogeneity and the Choice of Instruments to Control Nonpoint Pollution," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(2), pages 173-192, February.
    6. Archer, David Walter, 1995. "Self-insurance and self-protection in weed control: implications for nonpoint source pollution," ISU General Staff Papers 1995010108000012033, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Leung, Brian & Finnoff, David & Shogren, Jason F. & Lodge, David, 2005. "Managing invasive species: Rules of thumb for rapid assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 24-36, October.
    8. Kampas, Athanasios, 2001. "Identifying Common Fallacies in the Choice of Environmental Taxes for Agricultural Pollution Control: The Absence of Transaction Costs and the Normality of Agricultural Pollutants," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, August.
    9. David W. Archer & Jason F. Shogren, 1994. "Nonpoint Pollution, Weeds And Risk," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 38-51, January.
    10. Archer, David W. & Shogren, Jason F., 2001. "Risk-indexed herbicide taxes to reduce ground and surface water pollution: an integrated ecological economics evaluation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 227-250, August.
    11. Swinton, Scott M. & Black, J. Roy, 2000. "Modeling Of Agricultural Systems," Staff Paper Series 11581, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    12. Graham, Tennille, 2005. "On the Road to Better Management: An investigation into the benefits of managing the impacts of dryland salinity on roads," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137921, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. Aihoon, John Komo & Groenewald, Jan A. & von Bach, Helmke J. Sartorius, 1997. "Agricultural Salinization in the Olfants River at Loskop Valley, Mpumalanga," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(3), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Kampas, Athanasios & White, Ben, 2003. "Probabilistic programming for nitrate pollution control: Comparing different probabilistic constraint approximations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 217-228, May.
    15. Bouzaher, Aziz & Shogren, Jason F. & Holtkamp, Derald & Gassman, Philip & Archer, David & Lakshminarayan, P. & Carriquiry, Alicia & Reese, Randall & Kakani, Dharmaraju & Furtan, William H. & Izaurrald, 1995. "Agricultural Policies and Soil Degradation in Western Canada: An Agro-Ecological Economic Assessment (Report 4: Modifications to CRAM and Policy Evaluation Results)," Technical Reports 243855, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    16. Andrew J. Plantinga & JunJie Wu, 2003. "Co-Benefits from Carbon Sequestration in Forests: Evaluating Reductions in Agricultural Externalities from an Afforestation Policy in Wisconsin," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(1), pages 74-85.
    17. Athanasios Kampas & Anna Vasilaki & Athanasios Petsakos & Angeliki Stefopoulou, 2013. "Irrigation Full Cost Assessment: The case of the Pinios Local Organization for Land Reclamation, Greece," Working Papers 2013-1, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    18. Lakshminarayan, P. G., 1993. "Tradeoffs in balancing multiple objectives of an integrated agricultural economic and environmental system," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011833, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Arik Sadeh, 2003. "Optimal Product Lifecycle and Partial Information with Active Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 125-136, February.
    20. B. Croke & J. Ticehurst & R. Letcher & J. Norton & L. Newham & A. Jakeman, 2007. "Integrated assessment of water resources: Australian experiences," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 351-373, January.

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