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The Term Structure of the Risk–Return Trade-Off

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  • Campbell, John Y.
  • Viceira, Luis Manuel

Abstract

Expected excess returns on bonds and stocks, real interest rates, and risk shift over time in predictable ways. Furthermore, these shifts tend to persist for long periods. Changes in investment opportunities can alter the risk–return trade-off of bonds, stocks, and cash across investment horizons, thus creating a “term structure†of the risk–return trade-off. This term structure can be extracted from a parsimonious model of return dynamics, as is illustrated with data from the U.S. stock and bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis Manuel, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk–Return Trade-Off," Scholarly Articles 34299168, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:34299168
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    File URL: http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/34299168/196911/cv_termstructure_riskreturn.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Bianchi, Daniele & Tamoni, Andrea, 2016. "The dynamics of expected returns: evidence from multi-scale time series modelling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118992, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Zygimantas Meskauskas & Egidijus Kazanavicius, 2022. "About the New Methodology and XAI-Based Software Toolkit for Risk Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-15, May.
    3. González, Mariano & Nave, Juan & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock market betas," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 26-44.
    4. David Schröder, 2013. "Asset allocation in private wealth management: Theory versus practice," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3), pages 162-181, June.
    5. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Philippe Bertrand & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2019. "Mixed-asset portfolio allocation under mean-reverting asset returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 65-98, October.
    6. Arjan Berkelaar & Roy Kouwenberg, 2011. "A Liability-Relative Drawdown Approach to Pension Asset Liability Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Gautam Mitra & Katharina Schwaiger (ed.), Asset and Liability Management Handbook, chapter 14, pages 352-382, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Youngjun Yoon, 2010. "Glide path and dynamic asset allocation of target date funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(5), pages 346-360, December.
    8. Roar Adland & Haakon Ameln & Eirik A. Børnes, 2020. "Hedging ship price risk using freight derivatives in the drybulk market," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. "Time connectedness of fear," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 905-931, March.
      • Julián Andrada-Félixa & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "“Time connectedness of fear”," IREA Working Papers 201818, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2018.
    10. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2019. "Long horizon predictability: An asset allocation perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 961-975.
    11. Kole, Erik & van Dijk, Dick, 2023. "Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov-switching VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    12. Garry L. Shelley & Anca Traian & William J. Trainor Jr., 2020. "Stock market "prediction" models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1548-1556.
    13. Magnus Dahlquist & Markus Ibert, 2024. "Equity Return Expectations and Portfolios: Evidence from Large Asset Managers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1887-1928.
    14. Andrea Rigamonti & Alex Weissensteiner, 2020. "Asset allocation under predictability and parameter uncertainty using LASSO," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-201, June.
    15. Martin Schans & Hens Steehouwer, 2017. "Time-Dependent Black–Litterman," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(5), pages 371-387, September.
    16. Daniel Giamouridis & Athanasios Sakkas & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2017. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Liabilities," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(2), pages 254-291, March.
    17. Huang, Qiubin & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2020. "Does bank capitalization matter for bank stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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