IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/192004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Application of a Modified TAR Model to CIP Deviations in Asian Data

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Tchernykh Branson

    (Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research)

Abstract

The methodology to be used in this paper is estimation of a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. In this model deviations are random within a band defined by transactions costs and contract risk, and autoregressive towards the band outside it. The principal reference is Tchernykh (1998). These estimates can provide indicators for policy-makers of the market¡¦s expectation of crisis. They could also provide indicators for the private sector of convergence of deviations to their usual bands. The estimation methodology is a non-linear three-regime maximum likelihood procedure. The TAR model has the potential to be applied to differentials between linked pairs of financial market prices more generally. This paper modifies the classical TAR model to allow for progressive deviations from a stochastic regime, rather than simple jumps.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Tchernykh Branson, 2004. "Application of a Modified TAR Model to CIP Deviations in Asian Data," Working Papers 192004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:192004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/243/ub_full_0_2_93_wp200419_text.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark P. Taylor & Elena Tchernykh Branson, 2004. "Asymmetric Arbitrage and Default Premiums Between the U.S. and Russian Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-3.
    2. Branson, William H, 1969. "The Minimum Covered Interest Differential Needed for International Arbitrage Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 1028-1035, Nov./Dec..
    3. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    4. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Tchernykh & William H. Branson, 2005. "Regime-Switching Behavior of the Term Structure of Forward Markets," NBER Working Papers 11517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Tchernykh & William H. Branson, 2005. "Regime-Switching Behavior of the Term Structure of Forward Markets," NBER Working Papers 11517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Survey of Literature on Covered and Uncovered Interest Parities," MPRA Paper 22737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hernández Juan R., 2020. "Covered Interest Parity: A Stochastic Volatility Approach to Estimate the Neutral Band," Working Papers 2020-02, Banco de México.
    4. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2007. "Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 5278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, April.
    6. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00660654, HAL.
    7. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Juan R. Hernández, 2024. "Covered interest parity: a forecasting approach to estimate the neutral band," BIS Working Papers 1206, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Ted Juhl & William Miles & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2004. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Then vs. Now," NBER Working Papers 10961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bertrand BLANCHETON (CMHE-IFReDE-GRES) & Samuel MAVEYRAUD-TRICOIRE (Université Bordeaux IV), 2006. "The indicators of international financial integration: A set of convergent measures (In French)," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2006-13, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    11. Hsiou-Wei Lin & Yun Chiang Tai, 2009. "A nonparametric general equilibrium estimation of covered interest rate arbitrage for western European countries during the pre-euro period: a behavioural perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1223-1237.
    12. Kuga Iakov & Elena Kuzmina, 2016. "Covered interest parity: evidence from Russian money market," EERC Working Paper Series 16/01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    13. repec:bla:econom:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Christopher E.S. WARBURTON, 2018. "Covered Interest Parity And Frictions In Currency And Money Markets: Analysis Of British Pound And Dollar For The Period 1999-2006," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(1), pages 55-72.
    15. Khémiri, Wafa & Noubbigh, Hédi, 2020. "Size-threshold effect in debt-firm performance nexus in the sub-Saharan region: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 335-344.
    16. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
    17. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    18. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    19. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
    20. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Bonciani, Dario, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit," MPRA Paper 59370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 125-139, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:192004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.