IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/132009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Factor Analysis of Trade Integration: The Case of Asian and Oceanic Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Matthew S. Yiu

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Kenneth K. Chow

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Abstract

We study trade integration among 15 selected Asian and Oceanic economies using factor models. The principal component approach is employed to extract the common factor that drives trade integration from bilateral trade integration series. It is found that the estimated common trade integration factor has strong seasonal and deterministic components. In accordance with theory, the common trade integration factor is significantly associated with the economic growth and the trade barriers of the 15 economies. However, we find no evidence that the common trade integration factor is affected by foreign direct investment. The basic model is extended to incorporate an ASEAN factor that affects trade integration among the ASEAN economies in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Matthew S. Yiu & Kenneth K. Chow, 2009. "A Factor Analysis of Trade Integration: The Case of Asian and Oceanic Economies," Working Papers 132009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:132009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/135/ub_full_0_2_207_wp-no-13_2009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee, 2012. "Real and Financial Integration in East Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 332-349, May.
    2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    3. Yin-wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2004. "The Suitability of A Greater China Currency Union," Working Papers 122004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    5. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2006. "Dynamic Factor Models," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 3, pages 25-40, Springer.
    6. Kimura Fukunari & Ando Mitsuyo, 2005. "The Economic Analysis of International Production/Distribution Networks in East Asia and Latin America: The Implication of Regional Trade Arrangements," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, April.
    7. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, pages 177-216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kimura, Fukunari & 木村, 福成 & キムラ, フクナリ, 2007. "The mechanics of production networks in Southeast Asia: the fragmentation theory approach," CEI Working Paper Series 2007-8, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. repec:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:1:p:83-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    11. Ziegler, Christina & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "How good are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Kawai, Masahiro, 2005. "East Asian economic regionalism: progress and challenges," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 29-55, February.
    13. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 453-473.
    14. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Ando, Mitsuyo, 2006. "Fragmentation and vertical intra-industry trade in East Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 257-281, December.
    16. Ip-wing Yu & Laurence Fung & Chi-sang Tam, 2007. "Assessing Bond Market Integration in Asia," Working Papers 0710, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    17. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    18. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    20. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
    21. Mr. Leslie E Teo & Mr. David Cowen & Mr. Hemant Shah & Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Alessandro Zanello, 2006. "Financial Integration in Asia: Recent Developments and Next Steps," IMF Working Papers 2006/196, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1995. "Let's Get Real: A Dynamic Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center.
    24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Michel Fouquin, 2006. "Economic Integration in Asia: Bilateral Free Trade Agreements Versus Asian Single Market," Working Papers 2006-15, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthew S. Yiu & Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2009. "Econometric Approach to Early Warnings of Vulnerability in the Banking System and Currency Markets for Hong Kong and Other EMEAP Economies," Working Papers 0908, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    2. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration:Evidence Using a New Index," Working Papers 242009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Matthew S. Yiu & Wai-Yip Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2010. "Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Financial Spillover to Asian and Latin American Markets in Global Financial Turmoil," Working Papers 1001, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    4. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Mohamed Mehanaoui & Farhan Akbar, 2014. "The shift-contagion effect of global financial crisis and the European debt crisis on OECD Countries," Working Papers 2014-128, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. Kawai, Masahiro & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2014. "Trade Policy and Growth in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 495, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "A parametric estimation method for dynamic factor models of large dimensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 208-238, March.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Measuring economic integration: the case of Asian economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 136-158, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    4. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    5. Davor Kunovac, 2007. "Factor Model Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 371-393.
    6. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    7. Bräuning, Falk & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-584.
    8. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    9. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 73-107.
    10. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
    11. Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    13. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Ma, Tao & Zhou, Zhou & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2018. "Dynamic factor model for network traffic state forecast," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 281-317.
    15. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111428 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Forni, Mario & Cavicchioli, Maddalena & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2016. "Eigenvalue Ratio Estimators for the Number of Common Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 11440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Massimiliano Marcellino & George Kapetanios, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 305, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    19. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    20. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    21. Matteo Barigozzi, 2023. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models: A Critical Review," Papers 2303.11777, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor Model; Principal Component; Growth; Trade Barriers; ASEAN;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:132009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.