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Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector output in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600-1874

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  • Saito, Osamu
  • Takashima, Masanori

Abstract

This paper proposes a new methodology of estimating non-primary sector output shares in early modern growth. By using data from proto-industrial Japan, the paper demonstrates, first, that not just the rate of urbanisation but population density would also work as another predictor of the secondary and tertiary sectoral shares when growth was rural-centred; and second, that regional panel data should be constructed from earliest possible sets of modern data to estimate the coefficients of these two variables on the sectoral shares. In order to apply the coefficients derived from modern data for the calculation of pre-modern estimates, regional panel data are far superior to simple time-series statistics. The paper presents new per-capita GDP estimates thus computed for Japan 1600-1874, together with a brief comparison with previous estimates, especially those by Angus Maddison.

Suggested Citation

  • Saito, Osamu & Takashima, Masanori, 2015. "Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector output in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600-1874," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP15-4, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp15-4
    Note: This version: 26 May 2015
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    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/27294/dp15-4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Osamu Saito & Tokihiko Settsu, 2010. "Unveiling Historical Occupational Structures and its Implications for Sectoral Labour Productivity Analysis in Japan's Economic Growth," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-143, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    3. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Broadberry, Stephen & Fukao, Kyoji & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Takashima, Masanori, 2015. "Japan and the Great Divergence, 725-1874," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 230, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Saito, Osamu & Takashima, Masanori, 2015. "Population, urbanisation and farm output in early modern Japan, 1600-1874: a review of data and benchmark estimates," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP15-3, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Malanima, Paolo, 2011. "The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 169-219, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Broadberry, Stephen & Fukao, Kyoji & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Takashima, Masanori, 2019. "Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.
    2. María Fernanda Justiniano, 2020. "Las vías occidental y oriental de la revolución industriosa y la plata americana," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 7(2), pages 62-89, July.

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