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Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector outputs in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600–18741

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  • Osamu Saito
  • Masanori Takashima

Abstract

This paper proposes a new methodology of estimating non-primary sector output shares in early modern growth. By using data from proto-industrial Japan, the paper demonstrates, first, that not just the rate of urbanisation but population density would also work as another predictor of the secondary- and tertiary-sectoral shares when growth was rural-centred; and second, that regional panel data should be constructed from earliest possible sets of modern data to estimate the coefficients of these two variables on the sectoral shares. In order to apply the coefficients derived from modern data for the calculation of pre-modern estimates, regional panel data are far superior to simple time-series statistics. The paper presents new estimates of sectoral shares and the corresponding set of per capita gross domestic product thus computed for Japan 1600–1846, with a few comments on the prior estimates by Angus Maddison.

Suggested Citation

  • Osamu Saito & Masanori Takashima, 2016. "Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector outputs in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600–18741," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 20(3), pages 368-386.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ereveh:v:20:y:2016:i:3:p:368-386.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ereh/hew007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baten,Joerg (ed.), 2016. "A History of the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107507180, October.
    2. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui & Li, David Daokui, 2018. "China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 955-1000, December.
    3. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Broadberry, Stephen & Fukao, Kyoji & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Takashima, Masanori, 2019. "Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Smith, Thomas C., 1969. "Farm Family By-employments in Preindustrial Japan," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 687-715, December.
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    6. Osamu Saito & Tokihiko Settsu, 2010. "Unveiling Historical Occupational Structures and its Implications for Sectoral Labour Productivity Analysis in Japan's Economic Growth," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-143, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Broadberry, Stephen & Fukao, Kyoji & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Takashima, Masanori, 2019. "Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.
    2. Kumon, Yuzuru, 2022. "How Landownership Equality Created a Low Wage Society: Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1870," IAST Working Papers 22-138, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    3. Mitchell, Austin M. & Yin, Weiwen, 2022. "Political centralization, career incentives, and local economic growth in Edo Japan," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Yuzuru Kumon, 2020. "The Labor Intensive Path: Wages, Incomes and the Work Year in Japan, 1610-1932," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1154, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Fukao, Kyoji & 深尾, 京司 & Paul, Saumik, 2017. "The Role of Structural Transformation in Regional Convergence in Japan: 1874-2008," SSPJ Discussion Paper Series DP17-001, Service Sector Productivity in Japan: Determinants and Policies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Kumon, Yuzuru & Sakai, Kazuho, 2022. "Women's Wages and Empowerment : Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1890," CEI Working Paper Series 2022-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Fukao, Kyoji & Paul, Saumik, 2017. "The Role of Structural Transformation in Regional Convergence in Japan: 1874-2008," Discussion Paper Series 665, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Peter H. Lindert, 2016. "Purchasing Power Disparity before 1914," NBER Working Papers 22896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kumon, Yuzuru & Sakai, Kazuho, 2022. "Women’s Wages and Empowerment: Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1890," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 18/2022, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.

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