IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hit/hiasdp/hias-e-86.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinear Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Hyun-Hoon
  • Shin, Kwanho

Abstract

Using panel data for 142 countries for the period from 1960 to 2014, we assess the effects of population aging on economic growth. We find that population aging proxied by old-age population share (or old-age dependency ratio) negatively affects economic growth only when it reaches a certain high level and its negative effects grow stronger as population aging deepens. We also find that population aging has hampered economic growth during more recent years, especially in more aged countries which are mostly developed countries. This nonlinear effect of aging is mainly driven by the fact that we use old-age population share as a proxy for aging. If we use lower working-age population share as a proxy for aging, the nonlinear relationship disappears: working-age population share is positively related to economic growth in a linear way.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Shin, Kwanho, 2019. "Nonlinear Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth?," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-86, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-86
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/30369/070_hiasDP-E-86.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Vegard Skirbekk, 2004. "Age and Individual Productivity: A Literature Survey," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 133-154.
    5. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28027.
    8. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    10. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    11. Yihan Liu & Niklas Westelius, 2017. "The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-16, June.
    12. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Manuel Lancastre & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 325-342, December.
    13. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2008. "Population Health and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28036.
    14. Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "Impact of population aging on Asia’s future growth," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 3, pages 83-110, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2012. "Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15088.
    16. Hyun-Hoon LEE & Kwanho SHIN & Donghyun PARK, 2017. "Population Aging and Its Impact on Economic Growth -Implications for Korea," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 196, pages 162-188, December.
    17. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Saleh Alarussi & Eng Zhi Yen, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growthin Asian Countries," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 33-53.
    2. Piotr F. Borowski, 2021. "Significance and Directions of Energy Development in African Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Hongwei Lu & Mingjie Gao & Guojing Li & Tingting Li & Qiyou Luo, 2024. "Has the Household Old-Age Burden Affected Farm Household Incomes? Evidence from a Survey of Chinese Farm Households," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Okumura, Koki, 2021. "The aging society, savings rates, and regional flow of funds in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Tingting Li & Hongwei Lu & Qiyou Luo & Guojing Li & Mingjie Gao, 2024. "The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Cropping Structure: Evidence from China’s Provinces," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2022. "Demographic change, technological advance, and growth: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Yi-Chun Ko & Shinsuke Uchida & Akira Hibiki, 2024. "Substitution of Human and Physical Capitals in Farm Adaptation to Extreme Temperatures: Evidence from Corn Yields in US," TUPD Discussion Papers 49, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    8. Xu, Da & Shang, Yunfeng & Yang, Qin & Chen, Hui, 2023. "Population aging and eco-tourism efficiency: Ways to promote green recovery," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Xiaoxiao Ye & Yong Fan & Jing Miao & Zongyi He, 2022. "The Competitiveness of Regional Urban System in Hubei Province of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    10. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Peiyao Liu & Shu-Chin Lin, 2024. "The moderating role of financial development in the nexus between population aging and saving," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-32, April.
    11. Fukuda, Yukari, 2020. "Land prices and agglomeration: Theory and evidence from the Tokyo metropolitan area," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Okumura, Koki, 2020. "Regional convergence under declining population: The case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Miao Zhang & Shibing You & Li Zhang & Houli Zhang & Yukun Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Aging on China’s Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yan, Jingyang & Wang, Fuhao, 2024. "Impact of population aging on food security in the context of artificial intelligence: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Futagami, Koichi & Sunaga, Miho, 2022. "Risk aversion and longevity in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Sheng Zhong & Mingting Shi & Qiang Xiao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Growth Transition in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Kim, Jounghyeon, 2023. "Does population aging matter for remittances in developing countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1038-1056.
    19. Khan, Irfan & Hou, Fujun & Irfan, Muhammad & Zakari, Abdulrasheed & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "Does energy trilemma a driver of economic growth? The roles of energy use, population growth, and financial development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Jon Paul Laka & Ricardo Aguado, 2019. "Workforce Ageing and Labour Productivity in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Emerson, Patrick & Knabb, Shawn & Sirbu, Anca-Ioana, 2024. "Does the old-age dependency ratio place a drag on secular growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1056-1070.
    3. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    4. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde & Tommaso MonacelliManaging Editor, 2018. "Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 587-634.
    5. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    6. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2022. "Demographic change, technological advance, and growth: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Okumura, Koki, 2021. "The aging society, savings rates, and regional flow of funds in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Tselmuun Tserenkhuu, 2023. "Population aging and economic growth: A semiparametric panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 342-354.
    9. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    10. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2021. "Aging, automation, and productivity in Korea1," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    12. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    13. Allen, Steven G., 2023. "Demand for older workers: What do we know? What do we need to learn?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    14. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    15. Carmen Herrero & Ricardo Martínez & Antonio Villar, 2019. "Population Structure and the Human Development Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 731-763, January.
    16. Auclert, Adrien & Malmberg, Hannes & Martenet, Frederic & Rognlie, Matthew, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 16470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "Population Aging, Retirement, and Aggregate Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 10594, CESifo.
    18. Catarina Peralta & Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2021. "Automation, Education, and Population: Dynamic Effects in an OLG Growth and Fertility Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Physiological Aging around the World and Economic Growth," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 375, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    20. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112421, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population aging; working-age population; economic growth; nonlinearity; developed countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ashitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.