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The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Yeatman

    (University of Colorado Denver
    University of Colorado Population Center)

  • Jenny Trinitapoli

    (University of Chicago)

  • Sarah Garver

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one’s fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential—if sometimes blunt—tool in the demographers’ toolkit.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Yeatman & Jenny Trinitapoli & Sarah Garver, 2020. "The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2047-2056, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00921-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00921-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melanie Dawn Channon & Sarah Harper, 2019. "Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
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    5. Sarah R. Hayford & Victor Agadjanian, 2019. "Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 573-594, April.
    6. Aart C. Liefbroer, 2009. "Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective [Evolution des intentions en matière de taille de famille en début d’âge adulte: une approche biographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 363-386, November.
    7. S. Philip Morgan & Heather Rackin, 2010. "The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 91-118, March.
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    9. Maximilian W. Mueller & Joan Hamory Hicks & Jennifer Johnson-Hanks & Edward Miguel, 2019. "The Illusion of Stable Preferences over Major Life Decisions," NBER Working Papers 25844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Isabel Günther & Kenneth Harttgen, 2016. "Desired Fertility and Number of Children Born Across Time and Space," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 55-83, February.
    11. Christine A. Bachrach & Philip S. Morgan, 2011. "DEMOGRAPHIC DEBATE - Is the Theory of Planned Behaviour an appropriate model for human fertility?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 11-18.
    12. Ivy Kodzi & David Johnson & John Casterline, 2010. "Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(30), pages 965-984.
    13. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1102_0361 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Sarah R. Hayford & Victor Agadjanian, 2012. "From desires to behavior," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(20), pages 511-542.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.
    2. Öberg, Stefan, 2021. "The casual effect of fertility: The multiple problems with instrumental variables for the number of children in families," SocArXiv peuvz, Center for Open Science.

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