IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/289.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Killing Social Leaders for Territorial Control: The Unintended Consequences of Peace

Author

Listed:
  • Mounu Prem

    (School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario. Calle 12C No. 4-69, Bogota)

  • Andrés F. Rivera

    (School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario. Calle 12C No. 4-69, Bogota)

  • Dario A. Romero

    (Department of Economics, Columbia University. 1022 International Affairs Building, 420 West 118th Street, New York, NY 10027)

  • Juan F. Vargas

    (School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario. Calle 12C No. 4-69, Bogota)

Abstract

Incomplete peace agreements may inadvertently increase insecurity if they trigger violent territorial contestation. We study the unintended consequences of the Colombian peace process and find that the permanent ceasefire declared by the FARC insurgency during peace negotiations with the government triggered a surge in the targeting of local community leaders. Leaders were killed by armed groups excluded from the peace process to thwart collective action and civilian mobilization, thus consolidating their dominance in formerly FARC-controlled areas. These results are exacerbated in places with judicial inefficiency and where peasants dispossessed during the conflict have started administrative process to reclaim their land.

Suggested Citation

  • Mounu Prem & Andrés F. Rivera & Dario A. Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2019. "Killing Social Leaders for Territorial Control: The Unintended Consequences of Peace," HiCN Working Papers 289, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/HiCN-WP-289.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Camilo García-Jimeno & James A. Robinson, 2015. "State Capacity and Economic Development: A Network Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2364-2409, August.
    2. Daniel Mejía & María José Uribe, 2011. "Is Violence Against Union Members in Colombia Systematic and Targeted?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2011), pages 119-154, August.
    3. Joshua D. Angrist & Adriana D. Kugler, 2008. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 191-215, May.
    4. Ch, Rafael & Shapiro, Jacob & Steele, Abbey & Vargas, Juan F., 2018. "Endogenous Taxation in Ongoing Internal Conflict: The Case of Colombia," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 996-1015, November.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron, 2005. "Politics and economics in weak and strong states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1199-1226, October.
    6. Jorge Restrepo & Michael Spagat & Juan Vargas, 2004. "The Dynamics of the Columbian Civil Conflict: A New Dataset," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 21, pages 396-429.
    7. Eli Berman & Joseph H. Felter & Jacob N. Shapiro & Erin Troland, 2013. "Modest, Secure, and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 512-517, May.
    8. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2010. "State Capacity, Conflict, and Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 1-34, January.
    9. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
    10. Doyle, Michael W. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 779-801, December.
    11. Alexandra C. Hartman & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman, 2018. "Engineering Informal Institutions: Long-run Impacts of Alternative Dispute Resolution on Violence and Property Rights in Liberia," NBER Working Papers 24482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Melissa Dell, 2015. "Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1738-1779, June.
    13. Michael D. König & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2017. "Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1093-1132, July.
    14. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    15. Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph H. & Johnston, Patrick B., 2016. "Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 171-182.
    16. Nicola Gennaioli & Ilia Rainer, 2007. "The modern impact of precolonial centralization in Africa," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 185-234, September.
    17. Matthew Adam Kocher & Thomas B. Pepinsky & Stathis N. Kalyvas, 2011. "Aerial Bombing and Counterinsurgency in the Vietnam War," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 201-218, April.
    18. Leopoldo Fergusson & Juan F. Vargas & Mauricio A. Vela, 2013. "Sunlight disinfects? Free media in weak democracies," Documentos de Trabajo 10484, Universidad del Rosario.
    19. Toft, Monica Duffy & Zhukov, Yuri M., 2015. "Islamists and Nationalists: Rebel Motivation and Counterinsurgency in Russia's North Caucasus," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 222-238, May.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Leopoldo Fergusson & James Robinson & Dario Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2020. "The Perils of High-Powered Incentives: Evidence from Colombia's False Positives," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 1-43, August.
    21. Alexander B. Downes, 2007. "Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(6), pages 872-904, December.
    22. Jason Lyall, 2009. "Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(3), pages 331-362, June.
    23. Abbey Steele, 2009. "Seeking Safety: Avoiding Displacement and Choosing Destinations in Civil Wars," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 419-429, May.
    24. Luke N. Condra & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2012. "Who Takes the Blame? The Strategic Effects of Collateral Damage," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 167-187, January.
    25. Yuri M. Zhukov & Toft, Monica Duffy, "undated". "Islamists and Nationalists: Rebel Motivation and Counterinsurgency in Russia?s North Caucasus," Working Paper 221546, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    26. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson & Rafael J. Santos, 2013. "The Monopoly Of Violence: Evidence From Colombia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 5-44, January.
    27. Lyall, Jason & Blair, Graeme & Imai, Kosuke, 2013. "Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 679-705, November.
    28. Humphreys, Macartan & Weinstein, Jeremy M., 2006. "Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 100(3), pages 429-447, August.
    29. Patrick M. Regan, 2014. "Bringing peace back in: Presidential address to the Peace Science Society, 2013," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 345-356, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Art of Winning a Peace Agreement: The Case of the FARC
      by ? in Political Violence at a Glance on 2019-09-16 12:00:53

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Knight, Brian & Tribin, Ana, 2023. "Immigration and violent crime: Evidence from the Colombia-Venezuela Border," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Lucas Marín Llanes, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Alternative Development Programs: Evidence From Colombia's Illegal Crop Substitution," Documentos CEDE 18468, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Prem, Mounu & Saavedra, Santiago & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "End-of-conflict deforestation: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Cantillo, Tatiana & Garza, Nestor, 2022. "Armed conflict, institutions and deforestation: A dynamic spatiotemporal analysis of Colombia 2000–2018," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Samper, Juan Antonio & Krause, Torsten, 2024. "“We fight to the end”: On the violence against social leaders and territorial defenders during the post-peace agreement period and its political ecological implications in the Putumayo, Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Ana Maria Diaz & Luz Magdalena Salas & Ana María Tribín-Uribe, 2020. "Hidden benefits of peace: The case of sexual violence," Borradores de Economia 1124, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Ladino, Juan Felipe & Saavedra, Santiago & Wiesner, Daniel, 2021. "One step ahead of the law: The net effect of anticipation and implementation of Colombia’s illegal crops substitution program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. Gabriela Rubio, 2020. "¿Fin de la guerra, fin de la violencia? Evidencia del Acuerdo de Paz y homicidios en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 18228, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morales, Juan S., 2021. "Legislating during war: Conflict and politics in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Daniel Mejía, 2023. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 344-358, March.
    3. Leopoldo Fergusson, 2019. "Who wants violence? The political economy of conflict and state building in Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 38(78), pages 671-700, November.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Giuseppe De Feo & Giacomo Davide De Luca, 2020. "Weak States: Causes and Consequences of the Sicilian Mafia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(2), pages 537-581.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Leopoldo Fergusson & James Robinson & Dario Romero & Juan F. Vargas, 2020. "The Perils of High-Powered Incentives: Evidence from Colombia's False Positives," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 1-43, August.
    6. Diego A. Martin & Dario A. Romero, 2023. "Pretending to be the Law: Violence to Reduce the COVID-19 Outbreak," CID Working Papers 155a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.
    8. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
    9. Diego A. Martin & Dario A. Romero, 2023. "Pretending to be the Law: Violence to Reduce the COVID-19 Outbreak," Growth Lab Working Papers 220, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    10. Samuel Lordemus & Noemi Kreif & Rodrigo Moreno‐Serra, 2024. "Public Healthcare Financing during Counterinsurgency Efforts: Evidence from Colombia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1230-1259, October.
    11. Mizuno, Nobuhiro, 2016. "Political structure as a legacy of indirect colonial rule: Bargaining between national governments and rural elites in Africa," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 1023-1039.
    12. Catalina Tejada & Eliana Ferrara & Henrik Kleven & Florian Blum & Oriana Bandiera & Michel Azulai, 2015. "State Effectiveness, Growth, and Development," Working Papers id:6668, eSocialSciences.
    13. Roberto Ezcurra, 2024. "Sunlight, culture and state capacity," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 285-315, May.
    14. Leander Heldring, 2019. "The Origins of Violence in Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 299, Households in Conflict Network.
    15. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Olga Namen, 2023. "The Human Capital Peace Dividend," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 962-1002.
    16. Thiemo Fetzer & Pedro C. L. Souza & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L. Wright, 2021. "Security Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(7), pages 2275-2308, July.
    17. Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2022. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 764-779, October.
    18. Gustav Agneman, 2022. "Conflict Victimization and Civilian Obedience: Evidence from Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 379, Households in Conflict Network.
    19. Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A. & Torvik, Ragnar, 2020. "The political agenda effect and state centralization," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 749-778.
    20. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina & James A. Robinson & Juan F. Vargas, 2017. "The Long Shadow of the Past: Political Economy of Regional Inequality in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 15445, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social leaders; Peace process; Armed conflict; Territorial control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tilman Brück or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hicn.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.