IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/sifrwp/0059.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Information Misweighting and Stock Recommendations

Author

Listed:
  • Martinez, Jose Vicente

    (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)

Abstract

I provide evidence that analysts whose earnings forecast revisions showed signs of greater exaggeration in the past make recommendation changes that lead to lower abnormal returns than their peers. Interpreting stock recommendations as a forecast of future abnormal returns, I show that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that analysts who typically exaggerate or overstate the weight of their private information when issuing forecasts also do so when making recommendations. I also show that past earnings forecast provide incremental information about analysts' recommending behavior beyond that contained in past recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Martinez, Jose Vicente, 2007. "Information Misweighting and Stock Recommendations," SIFR Research Report Series 59, Institute for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sifr.org/PDFs/sifr-wp59.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    2. Green, T. Clifton, 2006. "The Value of Client Access to Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Li, Xi, 2005. "The persistence of relative performance in stock recommendations of sell-side financial analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 129-152, December.
    4. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    5. Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001. "Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers," Research Papers 1802, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    6. Qi Chen & Wei Jiang, 2006. "Analysts' Weighting of Private and Public Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 319-355.
    7. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    8. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2004. "Do security analysts exhibit persistent differences in stock picking ability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 67-91, October.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    10. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1083-1124 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Brett Trueman, 1990. "On the incentives for security analysts to revise their earnings forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 203-222, September.
    13. Alexander Ljungqvist & Christopher Malloy & Felicia Marston, 2009. "Rewriting History," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1935-1960, August.
    14. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring.
    15. Stickel, Se, 1990. "Predicting Individual Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 409-417.
    16. Loh, Roger K. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2006. "Do accurate earnings forecasts facilitate superior investment recommendations?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 455-483, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Martinez, Jose Vicente, 2011. "Information misweighting and the cross-section of stock recommendations," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 515-539, November.
    3. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    4. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    5. Chen Su & Hanxiong Zhang & Robert S. Hudson, 2020. "The time‐varying performance of UK analyst recommendation revisions: Do market conditions matter?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 65-89, May.
    6. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Kovacs, Tunde & Sharma, Vivek, 2012. "The investment value of the frequency of analyst recommendation changes for the ordinary investor," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 94-108.
    7. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
    8. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh, 2015. "A comparison of buy‐side and sell‐side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 42-51, January.
    9. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
    10. Hall, Jason L. & Tacon, Paul B., 2010. "Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    11. James S. Doran & Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger, 2010. "Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 560-590, June.
    12. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2018. "The impact of aggregate uncertainty on herding in analysts' stock recommendations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 90-105.
    13. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    14. Van Campenhout, Geert & Verhestraeten, Jan-Francies, 2010. "Herding Behavior among Financial Analysts: a literature review," Working Papers 2010/39, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    15. James S. Doran & Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger, 2010. "Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 560-590.
    16. Souček, Michael & Wasserek, Thomas, 2014. "Impact of analyst recommendations on stock returns: Evidence from the German stock market," Discussion Papers 358, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    17. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Nolte, Ingmar & Nolte, Sandra & Vasios, Michalis, 2014. "Sell-side analysts’ career concerns during banking stresses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 424-441.
    19. Sean Cleary & Jonathan Jona & Gladys Lee & Joshua Shemesh, 2020. "Underlying risk preferences and analyst risk‐taking behavior," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 949-981, July.
    20. Thabang Mokoaleli-Mokoteli & Richard J. Taffler & Vineet Agarwal, 2009. "Behavioural Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3-4), pages 384-418.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information misweighting; stock recommendations; earnings forecasts; financial analysts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anki Helmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sifrrse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.