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An Econometric Market Model of Capital and Investment Inspired by Haavelmo

Author

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  • Biørn, Erik

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

In the paper steps are taken towards integration of two parts of Trygve Haavelmo’s work: investment theory and econometrics of interrelated markets. Attempts are made to bring the duality in the representation of the capital service price and the capital quantity in relation to the investment price and quantity into the foreground, by confronting it with elements from simultaneous equation modeling of vector autoregressive systems with exogenous variables (VARX), using linear four-equation models. The role of the interest rate and the modeling of the expectation element in the capital service price and the capital’s retirement pattern, and their joint effect on the model’s investment quantity and price dynamics are discussed. Simulation experiments illustrate some of the theoretical points. An extension relaxing geometric decay is outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Biørn, Erik, 2012. "An Econometric Market Model of Capital and Investment Inspired by Haavelmo," Memorandum 11/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2012_011
    as

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    File URL: https://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2012/Memo-11-2012.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, June.
    2. Takayama,Akira, 1985. "Mathematical Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314985.
    3. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    4. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
    5. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    6. W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "Issues in the Measurement of Capital Services, Depreciation, Asset Price Changes, and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 479-556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment theory; Econometrics of investment; Stock-flow interaction; Dynamic stability; Capital retirement; Price expectation Duality. Final form. ARMAX;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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