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Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?

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  • Paul Collier
  • Benedikt Goderis

Abstract

The authors investigate the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of commodity export price shocks on growth in commodity‐dependent countries. Using a large cross‐country dataset, they find that negative shocks matter for short‐term growth, while the ex ante risk of shocks does not seem to matter. They also find that both the level of aid and the flexibility of the exchange rate substantially lower the adverse growth effect of shocks. While the mitigating effect of aid is significant in both countries with pegs and countries with floats, the effect seems to be smaller for the latter, suggesting that aid and exchange rate flexibility are partly substitutes. They investigate whether aid has historically been targeted at shock‐prone countries, but find no evidence that this is the case. This suggests that donors could increase aid effectiveness by redirecting aid toward countries with a high incidence of commodity export price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 429-451, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:3:p:429-451
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2009.00500.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Dabla-Norris, Era & Minoiu, Camelia & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-61.
    2. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural policies for shock-prone developing countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 703-726, October.
    3. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane & Wagner, Laurent, 2017. "How to Take into Account Vulnerability in Aid Allocation Criteria and Lack of Human Capital as Well: Improving the Performance Based Allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 27-40.
    4. Guillaumont, Patrick & McGillivray, Mark & Wagner, Laurent, 2017. "Performance Assessment, Vulnerability, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Aid Among Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-26.
    5. Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Aid Effectiveness for Poverty Reduction: Lessons from Cross‑country Analyses, with a Special Focus on Vulnerable Countries," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(HS01), pages 217-261.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "The Least Developed Countries' Services Waiver and the Stability of Least Developed Countries' Services Exports," EconStor Preprints 260587, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2010/240, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Munyanyi, Musharavati Ephraim & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa, 2022. "Foreign aid and energy poverty: Sub-national evidence from Senegal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Rohen d'AIGLEPIERRE et Laurent Wagner, 2017. "Macroeconomic Crisis, Primary Education and Aid Effectiveness," Working Paper def86062-d26a-4379-af8d-c, Agence française de développement.
    10. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2011. "Assessing the impact of the special support measures for least developed countries: an analytical frame work and some preliminary results," Working Papers P17, FERDI.
    11. Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Identifying thresholds in aid effectiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 619-638, August.
    12. Edmore MAHEMBE & Nicholas M. ODHIAMBO, 2017. "On The Link Between Foreign Aid And Poverty Reduction In Developing Countries," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 26(2), pages 113-128.
    13. Phoebe W. Ishak & Ulrich Fritsche, 2019. "Oil Price Shocks and Protest: Can Shadow Economy Mitigate?," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201901, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    14. Li Dai & Lorraine Eden & Paul W. Beamish, 2023. "The timing and mode of foreign exit from conflict zones: A behavioral perspective," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(6), pages 1090-1104, August.
    15. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2015. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 434-468, August.

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