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Happiness and Gold Prices

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Abstract

We use the Twitter-based Hedonometer happiness index to study the link between happiness and gold price changes. We find no significant correlation between the two when we look at correlations across the entire distributions. However, turning to an extreme value theory (EVT) modeling of the tails of the non-normally distributed happiness distribution we find that during particularly depressing days the gold price often goes up. In a sense, gold is found to serve as a happiness-related safe haven, i.e. as a hedge against extreme unhappiness.

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  • Byström, Hans, 2020. "Happiness and Gold Prices," Working Papers 2020:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2020_001
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    1. Zhao, Ruwei, 2020. "Quantifying the cross sectional relation of daily happiness sentiment and stock return: Evidence from US," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
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    5. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    6. Zhao, Ruwei, 2020. "Quantifying the cross sectional relation of daily happiness sentiment and return skewness: Evidence from US industries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    8. Shen, Dehua & Liu, Lanbiao & Zhang, Yongjie, 2018. "Quantifying the cross-sectional relationship between online sentiment and the skewness of stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 928-934.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twitter; happiness; Hedonometer; gold price; tail; extreme value theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G50 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - General

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