The costs of diabetes in 2020 and 2030 − A model analysis comparing innovative glucose lowering treatments in second line following European and American guidelines compared to current standard of care

A previous report estimated the long-term complications and societal costs of type 2 diabetes in 2020 and 2030 in Sweden (IHE Report 2015:1). That analysis showed that a more intensive treatment strategy, with more frequent health care contacts and a lower threshold for treatment change, reduces the risk of premature death and lead to fewer microvascular and macrovascular complications. By year 2030, the more intensive treatment strategy was cost-neutral. This report (IHE Report 2016:9) updates the previous one by evaluating the effects from including DPP-4 inhibitors, GLP-1 agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors in second-line treatment. This treatment strategy is estimated to reduces the risk of premature death and decrease microvascular and macrovascular complications compared to a strategy similar to current standard of care in Sweden. At the current price level, the total societal cost was estimated to increase due to the use DPP-4 inhibitors, GLP-1 agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors. When accounting for expected price reduction due to future patent expiries, the total societal cost was instead estimated to decrease by year 2030.