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Consistent Negative Responses of Rice Yield in China to High Temperatures and Extreme Temperature Events

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  • Chen, Xiaoguang
  • Chen, Shuai

Abstract

We analyzed a county-level data set of rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of high temperatures and extreme temperature events on rice yield. We found that (i) rice yield responded negatively to high temperatures (>29°C) and extreme temperature events, including cold and heat waves; (ii) rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 29°C and peaked with 1,550-1,800 growing degreedays; and (iii) holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 11-50 percent by 2070 under future warming. These results imply that both warming and extreme temperature events pose major challenges for Chinese rice farmers, and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield on very hot and cold days.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Xiaoguang & Chen, Shuai, 2017. "Consistent Negative Responses of Rice Yield in China to High Temperatures and Extreme Temperature Events," EfD Discussion Paper 17-7, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2017_007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Peng & Zhang, Junjie & Chen, Minpeng, 2017. "Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: The importance of additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 8-31.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rice yield; temperature; global warming; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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