A model for strategic planning of sustainable urban transport in Scandinavia: a case study of Uppsala

Growing populations and car traffic in cities pose challenges to city planners in the form of increased congestion on roads and demand for parking, crowding in public transport and more car traffic and may also affect safety and comfort in infrastructure for cycling. Current Scandinavian transport planning models do not handle these factors and solutions currently appear distant as good data is largely lacking. This paper reports tests with the HUT-model using simplified representations of these dimensions, intended for use in strategic transport planning with focus on cities applied to the city of Uppsala. The model also estimates costs for investment and operation of infrastructure, public transport and social costs for environmental effects and public funds. The tests suggest that these dimensions may have significant effects on transport demand and hence on transport planning. The results indicate that higher parking fees and more central location of new housing may be effective in reducing car traffic and increasing the mode shares of walking, cycling and public transport in Uppsala. Even stronger effects are reported for a package of instruments. Consequently, public costs for these policies are estimated to be about 25 percent lower than for the reference scenario. In contrast increases in supply, lower charges, or concentration of the capacity to bus trunk lines with increased speeds have smaller effects on mode shares. Increased supply and lower charges are costly to the public purse, whereas the trunk line policy has somewhat lower costs. The central conclusion is that results appear to be plausible and the model useful to planners.