IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhb/aarbfi/2007-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lapse Rate Modeling: A Rational Expectation Approach

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Lapse Rate Modeling: A Rational Expectation Approach Abstract The surrender option embedded in many life insurance products is a clause that allows policyholders to terminate the contract early. Pricing techniques based on the American Contingent Claim (ACC) theory are often used, though the actual policyholders' behavior is far from optimal. Inspired by many prepayment models for mort- gage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation of the corre- sponding two{space{dimensional parabolic partial di®erential equa- tion. Extensive numerical experiments show the di®erences in terms of pricing and interest rate elasticity between the ACC and RE ap- proaches as well as the sensitivity of the contract price with respect to changes in the policyholders' behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • De Giovanni, Domenico, 2007. "Lapse Rate Modeling: A Rational Expectation Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2007-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2007-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://130.226.203.32/fbspretrieve/868/F_2007_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Høg, Espen P. & Frederiksen, Per H., 2006. "The Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process: Term Structure Theory and Application," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2006-01, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    2. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Porter, David C. & Tanggaard, Carsten & Weaver, Daniel G. & Yu, Wei, 2006. "Dispersed Trading and the Prevention of Market Failure: The Case of the Copenhagen Stock Exchange," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2006-97, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    4. Anand, Amber & Tanggaard, Carsten & Weaver, Daniel G., 2009. "Paying for Market Quality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1427-1457, December.
    5. Steffensen, Mogens, 2002. "Intervention options in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-85, August.
    6. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 907-929, November.
    7. Anonymous, 1980. "15th Annual Conference of the Western Finance Association," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 485-496, June.
    8. Anonymous, 1980. "15th Annual Conference of the Western Finance Association," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 239-252, March.
    9. Bjarke Jensen & Peter Løchte Jørgensen & Anders Grosen, 2001. "A Finite Difference Approach to the Valuation of Path Dependent Life Insurance Liabilities," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 26(1), pages 57-84, June.
    10. David C. Porter & Carsten Tanggaard & Daniel G. Weaver & Wei Yu, 2008. "Dispersed Trading and the Prevention of Market Failure: the Case of the Copenhagen Stock Exchange," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 243-267, March.
    11. Grosen, Anders & Lochte Jorgensen, Peter, 2000. "Fair valuation of life insurance liabilities: The impact of interest rate guarantees, surrender options, and bonus policies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 37-57, February.
    12. Bacinello, Anna Rita, 2005. "Endogenous model of surrender conditions in equity-linked life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 270-296, October.
    13. Weiyu Kuo & Chenghsien Tsai & Wei‐Kuang Chen, 2003. "An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: The Cointegration Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 489-508, September.
    14. Anna Rita Bacinello, 2003. "Fair Valuation of a Guaranteed Life Insurance Participating Contract Embedding a Surrender Option," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 461-487, September.
    15. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Løchte Jørgensen & Domenico De Giovanni, 2010. "Time Charters with Purchase Options in Shipping: Valuation and Risk Management," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 399-430.
    2. Høg, Esben, 2008. "Volatility and realized quadratic variation of differenced returns : A wavelet method approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-06, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Consiglio & Domenico De Giovanni, 2010. "Pricing the Option to Surrender in Incomplete Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 935-957, December.
    2. Martin Eling & Michael Kochanski, 2013. "Research on lapse in life insurance: what has been done and what needs to be done?," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 392-413, August.
    3. Russo, Vincenzo & Giacometti, Rosella & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2017. "Intensity-based framework for surrender modeling in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 189-196.
    4. Nadine Gatzert & Gudrun Hoermann & Hato Schmeiser, 2009. "The Impact of the Secondary Market on Life Insurers’ Surrender Profits," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 887-908, December.
    5. Schmeiser, H. & Wagner, J., 2011. "A joint valuation of premium payment and surrender options in participating life insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 580-596.
    6. Jorgensen, Peter Lochte, 2007. "Traffic light options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3698-3719, December.
    7. Kochanski, Michael, 2010. "Solvency capital requirement for German unit-linked insurance products," German Risk and Insurance Review (GRIR), University of Cologne, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, vol. 6(2), pages 33-70.
    8. Christian Hilpert & Jing Li & Alexander Szimayer, 2014. "The Effect of Secondary Markets on Equity-Linked Life Insurance With Surrender Guarantees," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(4), pages 943-968, December.
    9. Peter Løchte Jørgensen & Domenico De Giovanni, 2010. "Time Charters with Purchase Options in Shipping: Valuation and Risk Management," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 399-430.
    10. Feodoria, Mark & Förstemann, Till, 2015. "Lethal lapses: How a positive interest rate shock might stress German life insurers," Discussion Papers 12/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Li, Jing & Szimayer, Alexander, 2010. "The effect of policyholders' rationality on unit-linked life insurance contracts with surrender guarantees," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 22/2010, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    12. Høg, Esben, 2008. "Volatility and realized quadratic variation of differenced returns : A wavelet method approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2008-06, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    13. Nadine Gatzert & Hato Schmeiser, 2008. "Assessing the Risk Potential of Premium Payment Options in Participating Life Insurance Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 691-712, September.
    14. Su, Karen C., 2010. "The conversion option in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 437-442, June.
    15. Bacinello, Anna Rita, 2005. "Endogenous model of surrender conditions in equity-linked life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 270-296, October.
    16. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    17. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    18. Kling, Alexander & Richter, Andreas & Ru[ss], Jochen, 2007. "The interaction of guarantees, surplus distribution, and asset allocation in with-profit life insurance policies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 164-178, January.
    19. Srbinoski Bojan & Strozzi Fernanda & Poposki Klime & Born Patricia H., 2020. "Trends in Life Insurance Demand and Lapse Literature," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-46, July.
    20. Cheng, Chunli & Hilpert, Christian & Miri Lavasani, Aidin & Schaefer, Mick, 2023. "Surrender contagion in life insurance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1465-1479.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2007-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helle Vinbaek Stenholt (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifhhadk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.