IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hfa/wpaper/24-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ross M. Batzer

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • Jonah Coste

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • William M. Doerner

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

  • Michael J. Seiler

    (Federal Housing Finance Agency)

Abstract

People can be "locked-in" or constrained in their ability to make appropriate financial changes, such as being unable to move homes, change jobs, sell stocks, rebalance portfolios, shift financial accounts, adjust insurance policies, transfer investment profits, or inherit wealth. These frictions---whether institutional, legislative, personal, or market-driven---are often overlooked. Residential real estate exemplifies this challenge with its physical immobility, high transaction costs, and concentrated wealth. In the United States, nearly all 50 million active mortgages have fixed rates, and most have interest rates far below prevailing market rates, creating a disincentive to sell. This paper finds that for every percentage point that market mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1%. This mortgage rate lock-in led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in 2023Q4 and prevented 1.33 million sales between 2022Q2 and 2023Q4. The supply reduction increased home prices by 5.7%, outweighing the direct impact of elevated rates, which decreased prices by 3.3%. These findings underscore how mortgage rate lock-in restricts mobility, results in people not living in homes they would prefer, inflates prices, and worsens affordability. Certain borrower groups with lower wealth accumulation are less able to strategically time their sales, worsening inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross M. Batzer & Jonah Coste & William M. Doerner & Michael J. Seiler, 2024. "The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates," FHFA Staff Working Papers 24-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  • Handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:24-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.fhfa.gov/document/wp2403.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp2403
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klein, Peter, 2001. "The capital gain lock-in effect and long-horizon return reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-62, January.
    2. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Brown, Jennifer & Matsa, David A., 2020. "Locked in by leverage: Job search during the housing crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 623-648.
    4. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "Housing busts and household mobility: an update," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Nov), pages 1-15.
    5. Zhonglan Dai & Edward Maydew & Douglas A. Shackelford & Harold H. Zhang, 2008. "Capital Gains Taxes and Asset Prices: Capitalization or Lock‐in?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 709-742, April.
    6. Senchack, A. J. & Starks, Laura T., 1993. "Short-Sale Restrictions and Market Reaction to Short-Interest Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 177-194, June.
    7. Henry S. Farber, 2012. "Unemployment in the Great Recession: Did the Housing Market Crisis Prevent the Unemployed from Moving to Take Jobs?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 520-525, May.
    8. Esty, Benjamin C. & Megginson, William L., 2003. "Creditor Rights, Enforcement, and Debt Ownership Structure: Evidence from the Global Syndicated Loan Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 37-60, March.
    9. Quigley, John M., 2002. "Homeowner Mobility and Mortgage Interest Rates: New Evidence from the 1990s," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt9192767g, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    10. Michael LaCour-Little & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2010. "Home Equity Extraction by Homeowners: 2000-2006," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 23-46.
    11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    12. Asaf Bernstein & Daan Struyven, 2022. "Housing Lock: Dutch Evidence on the Impact of Negative Home Equity on Household Mobility," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-32, August.
    13. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2011. "Do Caps on Increases in Assessed Values Create a Lock-in Effect? Evidence From Florida’s Amendment One," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(1), pages 8-25, March.
    14. Sirmans, G. Stacy & Smith, Stanley D. & Sirmans, C. F., 1983. "Assumption Financing and Selling Price of Single-Family Homes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 307-317, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neil Bhutta & Lauren Lambie-Hanson, 2024. "The Rise in Mortgage Fees: Evidence from HMDA Data," Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers 24-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Jordan Rappaport, 2024. "Housing Services Inflation May Decline Only Gradually," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-4, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcus Moelbak Ingholt, 2017. "House Prices, Geographical Mobility, and Unemployment," Discussion Papers 17-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Julia Fonseca & Lu Liu, 2024. "Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3729-3772, December.
    3. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Stimmelmayr, Michael & Liberini, Federica & Russo, Antonio, 2015. "The Role of Toeholds and Capital Gain Taxes for Corporate Acquisition Strategies," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112926, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    6. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2012. "Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 999-1018, January.
    7. Harry Huizinga & Johannes Voget & Wolf Wagner, 2014. "International Taxation and Cross-Border Banking," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 94-125, May.
    8. Xiaoping Zhou & Zhenyang Qin & Yingjie Zhang & Linyi Zhao & Yan Song, 2019. "Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-28, December.
    9. Huizinga, Harry & Voget, Johannes & Wagner, Wolf, 2018. "Capital gains taxation and the cost of capital: Evidence from unanticipated cross-border transfers of tax base," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 306-328.
    10. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    11. Vasilios Plakandaras & Ioannis Pragidis & Paris Karypidis, 2024. "Deciphering the U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 434-485, March.
    12. Alexander N. Bogin & Stephen D. Bruestle & William M. Doerner, 2017. "How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 97-116, January.
    13. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2012. "Did the Recent Housing Boom Signal the Global Financial Crisis?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(3), pages 999-1018, January.
    14. Smith, Scott & Fuller, Debra & Bogin, Alex & Polkovnichenko, Nataliya & Weiher, Jesse, 2016. "Countercyclical capital regime revisited: Tests of robustness," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 50-78.
    15. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    16. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1535-1555, November.
    17. Brown, Jennifer & Matsa, David A., 2020. "Locked in by leverage: Job search during the housing crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 623-648.
    18. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    19. Hsiao-Jung Teng & Chin-Oh Chang & Ming-Chi Chen, 2017. "Housing bubble contagion from city centre to suburbs," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1463-1481, May.
    20. Füss, Roland & Zietz, Joachim, 2016. "The economic drivers of differences in house price inflation rates across MSAs," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; interest rate; lock-in; monetary policy; mortgages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G50 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - General
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hfa:wpaper:24-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: William Doerner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fhfaaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.