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Countercyclical capital regime revisited: Tests of robustness

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  • Smith, Scott
  • Fuller, Debra
  • Bogin, Alex
  • Polkovnichenko, Nataliya
  • Weiher, Jesse

Abstract

Financial entities have been subject to risk-based capital requirements for many years. The experiences of the recent financial crisis led to heightened criticism that these rules are pro-cyclical, meaning they require insufficient capital during economic booms and excessive capital during busts. In response, recent revisions to such rules have included a countercyclical capital buffer, but it is problematic because implementation is discretionary with respect to both timing and amount on the part of regulators. An alternative rules-based countercyclical capital proposal put forth by Smith and Weiher (April, 2012. Countercyclical capital regime: a proposed design and empirical evaluation. Federal housing finance agency, working paper no. 12-2) that embodies a dynamically adjusting stress test for mortgage assets was intentionally structured to address these concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Scott & Fuller, Debra & Bogin, Alex & Polkovnichenko, Nataliya & Weiher, Jesse, 2016. "Countercyclical capital regime revisited: Tests of robustness," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 50-78.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:84:y:2016:i:c:p:50-78
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2015.11.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen D. Oliner & Morris A. Davis & Will Larson, 2019. "Mortgage risk since 1990," AEI Economics Working Papers 1001502, American Enterprise Institute.
    2. Alexander N. Bogin & Stephen D. Bruestle & William M. Doerner, 2017. "How Low Can House Prices Go? Estimating a Conservative Lower Bound," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 97-116, January.
    3. William D. Larson, 2023. "The riskiness of outstanding mortgages in the United States, 1999–2019," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 279-310, March.
    4. Alexander N. Bogin & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2019. "Local House Price Paths: Accelerations, Declines, and Recoveries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 201-222, February.
    5. Peter Chinloy & William D. Larson, 2017. "The Daily Microstructure of the Housing Market," FHFA Staff Working Papers 17-01, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    6. Alexander N. Bogin & LaRhonda Ealey & Kirsten Landeryou & Scott Smith & Andrew Tsai, 2023. "Geographic Disaggregation of House Price Stress Paths: Implications for Single-Family Credit Risk Measurement," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    7. Morris A Davis & William D Larson & Stephen D Oliner & Benjamin R Smith, 2023. "A Quarter Century of Mortgage Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 581-618.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital; Countercyclical; Stress test; House prices; Credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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