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Les émissions de CO2 du Brésil - L'impact du secteur UTCATF (usage des terres, changement d'affectation des terres et foresterie)

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  • Jérôme Trotignon

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

L'Equation de Kaya exprime les émissions de CO2 d'un pays en fonction de facteurs économique, démographique et énergétique. Plusieurs travaux décomposent par période, à partir de cette équation, les effets sur les émissions brésiliennes des variables de population, de PIB par tête, d'intensité énergétique (contenu en énergie du PIB) et d'intensité carbonique (contenu en carbone de l'énergie). Mais ils ne tiennent pas compte des émanations de CO2 engendrées par le secteur UTCATF. Pour pallier cet inconvénient et mieux éclairer les enjeux des politiques climatiques, nous proposons une analyse de décomposition des facteurs d'évolution des émissions qui inclut les statistiques du secteur UTCATF. Son influence dans la variation des émissions totales s'avère prédominante, aussi bien comme stimulant sur la période de déforestation massive de 1994-2000, que comme modérateur de 2000 à 2005, année où s'ébauche le programme de déforestation évitée.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Trotignon, 2012. "Les émissions de CO2 du Brésil - L'impact du secteur UTCATF (usage des terres, changement d'affectation des terres et foresterie)," Working Papers halshs-00746524, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746524
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00746524
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    Keywords

    analyse de décomposition; Brésil; déforestation; équation de Kaya; facteurs d'émission de CO2; intensité carbonique; intensité énergétique; secteur UTCATF;
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