The long-run economics of sustainable orbit use

All space-based economic growth requires use of Earth's orbital space. But as rocket and satellite technologies become cheaper, congestion and pollution threaten to reduce terrestrial access to space-based services like GPS and remote sensing and severely limit the potential for space-based growth. We propose a unifying model and a graphical framework to represent the long-term sustainable size of the satellite fleet and its economic value as a function of the launch rate, as well as its effects on the orbital environment. We show how the framework can be used to consider long-term orbital outcomes emerging under different management institutions, derive policy instruments which maximize the economic value of orbit use, and consider the effects of different technological innovations accounting for behavioral responses to the innovations. We conclude with a discussion of open questions in orbit-use management which are both relevant to policymakers around the world and likely to generate insights into environmental management and sustainable growth.