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Is international tourism responsible for the pandemic of COVID-19? A preliminary cross-country analysis with a special focus on small islands

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  • Jean-François Hoarau

    (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion, UR UFRDE - Université de La Réunion - UFR Droit et économie - UR - Université de La Réunion, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article aims at analysing the role of international tourism attractiveness as a potential factor for the outbreak and the spread of the recent COVID-19 disease across the world with a special focus on small island economies. Econometric testing is implemented over a crosscountry sample including 205 countries/territories (with 58 small islands) after controlling for several usual suspects. The results state a positive and significant relationship between COVID-19 prevalence and inbound tourism arrivals per capita. Thus international tourism must be seen as one of the main responsible factors for the recent pandemic, validating the "tourism-led vulnerability hypothesis". Accordingly, this finding suggests that the tourism specialization model in the context of small islands is too vulnerable to be considered as sustainable in the medium and long-run. Policymakers must opt for economic diversification when possible.

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  • Jean-François Hoarau, 2021. "Is international tourism responsible for the pandemic of COVID-19? A preliminary cross-country analysis with a special focus on small islands," Working Papers hal-03234289, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03234289
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03234289
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-François Hoarau, 2021. "État des lieux, menaces et perspectives futures pour le tourisme à La Réunion : un regard macroéconomique," Post-Print hal-03546567, HAL.
    2. Ketan Bhatt & Claudia Seabra & Sunil Kumar Kabia & Kumar Ashutosh & Amit Gangotia, 2022. "COVID Crisis and Tourism Sustainability: An Insightful Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, September.
    3. Jean-François Hoarau, 2020. "Is international tourism responsible for the pandemic of COVID-19? A very preliminary assessment with a special focus on small islands," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2395-2407.
    4. Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura & Yuan, Mengying & Zhou, Shihao, 2022. "Save lives or save livelihoods? A cross-country analysis of COVID-19 pandemic and economic growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 221-256.

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    Keywords

    COVID-19; Health epidemics; International tourism; Small islands; Vulnerability;
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