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Vers une Géopolitique de l'énergie plus complexe ? Une analyse prospective tridimensionnelle de la transition énergétique

Author

Listed:
  • Clement Bonnet

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Samuel Carcanague

    (IRIS - Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques)

  • Emmanuel Hache

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Gondia Seck

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Marine Simoën

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

Abstract

Cette étude cherche à analyser trois enjeux au coeur de la transition vers les énergies renouvelables (ENR): (1) l'importance des matériaux nécessaires à la production des technologies des ENR ; (2) les dynamiques d'innovation dans ces technologies et le rôle qu'elles confèrent aux règles de la propriété intellectuelle ; (3) les interactions entre la transition énergétique et les économies exportatrices de combustibles fossiles. Ces trois sous-systèmes interagissent au sein du système plus large que constitue la géopolitique des énergies renouvelables. Les interactions entre ces différentes dimensions s'avèrent essentielles à analyser dans le cadre de la coopération internationale pour la lutte contre le changement climatique et pour comprendre les futurs jalons d'un nouvel ordre énergétique mondial. L'originalité de ce travail est de démontrer que l'analyse de la transition énergétique ne doit pas se restreindre aux liens entre les politiques climatiques, l'innovation et le déploiement des ENR. Une vision plus large est nécessaire pour prendre en compte dans un premier temps les rétroactions négatives du déploiement des ENR via les secteurs des hydrocarbures et des métaux. D'autre part, il convient d'analyser de plus près la rétroaction de l'innovation sur les politiques climatiques pour s'assurer qu'une boucle positive se forme. Trois conclusions peuvent être tirées de ce travail au niveau national ou international en matière de politiques publiques : - Les pouvoirs de marché des pays producteurs des matériaux de la transition énergétique risquent de s'accentuer dans les années à venir et les politiques de recyclage pourraient permettre de réduire le coût de la transition énergétique ; - Les politiques climatiques doivent s'assurer que les droits de propriété intellectuelle ne deviennent pas un point de blocage de la négociation climatique ; - La diversification des économies productrices d'hydrocarbures est déterminante pour le déploiement des ENR et, plus largement, sur le rythme et les modalités de la transition énergétique au niveau global. En définitive, dans un contexte de généralisation des technologies bas-carbone,

Suggested Citation

  • Clement Bonnet & Samuel Carcanague & Emmanuel Hache & Gondia Seck & Marine Simoën, 2019. "Vers une Géopolitique de l'énergie plus complexe ? Une analyse prospective tridimensionnelle de la transition énergétique," Working Papers hal-02971706, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02971706
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