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Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period

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  • Sandrine Levasseur

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Our findings indicate that the former split of CEECs in terms of business cycles synchronization with the euro area does not hold as soon as the recent period is taken into account. While Slovenia and Poland continue to appear as suitable EMU members due to their high - and growing - GDP co-movements with the euro area, Hungary does no longer belong to this group. By contrast, Slovakia has presented for few years a high degree of business cycle synchronization with the euro area - comparable to the one of Slovenia - which has not been captured by previous empirical studies. Our findings show also that Lithuania does not participate in the general trend of higher GDP co-movements with the euro area. Furthermore, an analysis by GDP components reveals that internal components rather than external ones predominantly account for growing GDP synchronization between CEECs and the euro area.

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  • Sandrine Levasseur, 2008. "Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period," Working Papers hal-00973040, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00973040
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-00973040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Sandrine LEVASSEUR, 2010. "International outsourcing over the business cycle: some intuition for Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 1, pages 165-185, December.
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    6. Gilson, Nathalie alias Natacha & Labondance, Fabien, 2013. "Synchronisation des chocs d’offre et de demande en Europe – Un après-euro ou une après-crise des subprimes ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 155-189, Septembre.
    7. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010. "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 203-227, June.
    9. Dinu. Marin & Marinas, Marius Corneliu & Socol Cristian & Socol, Aura Gabriela, 2012. "Clusterization, Persistence, Dependency and Volatility of Business Cycles in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-23, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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