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La débâcle de l'austérité. Perspectives 2012-2013

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Les politiques d'austérité, enclenchées par les pays européens pour sortir de la crise budgétaire, se poursuivent, malgré la rechute de l'activité enregistrée depuis la mi-2011. La volonté d'assainissement budgétaire, certes louable, s'avère pourtant contreproductive en période de récession. Les réductions de recettes fiscales liées au fléchissement de l'activité, ainsi que les multiplicateurs budgétaires élevés freinent la baisse du déficit, entraînant une surenchère dans l'austérité et créant une dangereuse spirale dans laquelle les pays de la zone euro sont en train de s'enfermer. Ce numéro analyse les perspectives économiques de l'Europe, dans le contexte d'une timide reprise de l'activité dans les pays émergents et aux États-Unis. Ainsi, en l'absence de changement de cap, la récession en zone euro se poursuivrait en 2013. Après une croissance de 0,1 % en 2012, la France, quant à elle, devrait connaître une stagnation de l'activité en 2013.

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  • Xavier Timbeau, 2012. "La débâcle de l'austérité. Perspectives 2012-2013," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03473953, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03473953
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03473953
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