IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03459160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?

Author

Listed:
  • Sabine Le Bayon

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This article aims to explain why Spanish growth has been so high since the mid-90s (with a significant reduction in public deficit and the unemployment rate), but also why it is not sustainable in the long term. Indeed, growth has recently been greatly dependent on European structural funds and an expansive monetary policy. Furthermore, it has induced severe imbalances (increasing current deficit and household debt, thus generating a house price bubble). For the catching-up towards the European Union to continue, higher productivity growth is necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabine Le Bayon, 2006. "La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459160, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459160
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.097.0203
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03459160/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3917/reof.097.0203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samuel Bentolila & Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Spanish Unemployment: The End of the Wild Ride?," Working Papers 2003-10, FEDEA.
    2. Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Tax Incentives and House Price Volatility in the Euro Area: Theory and Evidence," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 101, pages 29-45.
    3. Juan José Dolado & Florentino Felgueroso & Francisco Jimeno, 1999. "Los problemas del mercado de trabajo juvenil en España: empleo, formación y salarios mínimos," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 43(01), pages 136-157.
    4. J. David López-Salido & Fernando Restoy, 2005. "Los diferenciales de inflación en la UEM: el caso de la economía española," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue NOV, pages 79-91, Noviembre.
    5. Juan Ayuso & Jorge Martínez & Luis A. Maza & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices in Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue OCT, pages 69-74, October.
    6. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
    7. Soledad Bravo & Coral García, 2004. "La cuota de mercado de las exportaciones españolas en la última década," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue APR, pages 59-67, Abril.
    8. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & Gwen Eudey, 2002. "Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 497-516, August.
    9. Esther Gordo & María Gil & Miguel Pérez, 2003. "La industria manufacturera española en el contexto europeo," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue MAR, pages 33-48, Marzo.
    10. Ángel Estrada & David López-Salido, 2001. "Accounting for Spanish productivity growth using sectoral data: New Evidence," Working Papers 0110, Banco de España.
    11. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España.
    12. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2004. "The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 19, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    13. Angel de la Fuente, 2003. "El impacto de los Fondos Estructurales: Convergencia real y cohesión interna," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 165(2), pages 122-129, June.
    14. Esther Gordo, 2004. "Los efectos de la ampliación de la UE sobre la economía española: estructuras productivas y flujos comerciales," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue JUN, pages 53-66, Junio.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabine Le Bayon, 2006. "La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?," Post-Print hal-03459160, HAL.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2822 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2822 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. A. Bruggeman & M. Hradisky & V. Périlleux, 2005. "Share prices, house prices and monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 65-78, September.
    5. Ramiro J. Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Office Market Dynamics in Madrid: Modelling with a Single-Equation Error Correction Mechanism," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 451-491.
    6. Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon & Hervé Péléraux & Xavier Timbeau, 2005. "L’immobilier, pilier de la croissance ou épée de Damoclès," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Hervé Péléraux & Xavier Timbeau & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon, 2005. "L'immobilier, pilier de la croissance ou épée de Damoclès : bulle immobilière, causes et conséquences macro-économiques d'un retournement du marché immobilier," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972769, HAL.
    8. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1756 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1756 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Spain: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note: Housing Prices, Household Debt, and Financial Stability," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/210, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1756 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1756 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Béchir Bouzid, 2010. "Titrisation des emprunts hypothécaires et bulle immobilière aux États-Unis : les origines d’une débâcle," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 97(2), pages 101-142.
    15. Adrienne Mack & Enrique Martínez García, 2011. "A cross-country quarterly database of real house prices: a methodological note," Globalization Institute Working Papers 99, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Garrido-Yserte, Rubén & Mañas-Alcón, Elena & Gallo-Rivera, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Housing and cost of living: Application to the Spanish regions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 246-255.
    17. Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina & Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso & Olarte Armenta, Sergio, 2013. "Índice de desbalance macroeconómico," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 8, pages 301-336, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Ricardo Gimeno & Carmen Martínez-Carrascal, 2006. "The interaction between house prices and loans for house purchase. The Spanish case," Working Papers 0605, Banco de España.
    19. Angulo, Ana & Burridge, Peter & Mur, Jesús, 2018. "Testing for breaks in the weighting matrix," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 115-129.
    20. Álvarez-Román, Laura & García-Posada, Miguel, 2021. "Are house prices overvalued in Spain? A regional approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    21. Francisco Blanco & Victor Martín & Guillermo Vazquez, 2016. "Regional house price convergence in Spain during the housing boom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(4), pages 775-798, March.
    22. Beatriz Larraz-Iribas & Jose-Luis Alfaro-Navarro, 2008. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Spanish Regional House Prices," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(4), pages 407-421, November.
    23. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
    24. Tamara Slišković, 2018. "Analiza međuovisnosti stambenog tržišta i makroekonomskog sustava u Hrvatskoj," EFZG Occasional Publications (Department of Macroeconomics), in: Zbornik radova znanstvenog skupa: Modeli razvoja hrvatskog gospodarstva, (ur. Družić, G.; Družić, I., izdavač: Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb; Hrvatska aka, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 247-280, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    25. Carlos Garriga, 2010. "The Role of Construction in the Housing Boom and Bust in Spain," Working Papers 2010-09, FEDEA.
    26. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03459160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.