IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/bdr/bdrcap/2013-09-301-336.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Índice de desbalance macroeconómico

In: Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes

Author

Listed:
  • Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina
  • Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso
  • Olarte Armenta, Sergio

Abstract

Este trabajo se enfoca en cuatro variables que la literatura económica ha identificado como generadoras de señales en la formación de desbalances macroeconómicos: la cuenta corriente, la tasa de cambio real, el crédito y los precios de la vivienda. Para cada una de ellas se calcularon desviaciones sobre sus medidas de largo plazo y a partir de su componente principal se construyó un Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico (IDM).

Suggested Citation

  • Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina & Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso & Olarte Armenta, Sergio, 2013. "Índice de desbalance macroeconómico," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 8, pages 301-336, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:bdrcap:2013-09-301-336
    DOI: 10.32468/Ebook.664-270-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/6642/CL_8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/Ebook.664-270-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, 2010. "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(63), pages 232-259, December.
    2. Carolina Arteaga & Joan Granados & Jair Ojeda, 2013. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(72), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    5. Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., 2007. "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator for asset price boom/bust cycles," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 8, pages 7-9.
    7. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    8. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
    13. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2014. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(73), pages 77-86, July.
    14. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    15. Agosin, Manuel R. & Huaita, Franklin, 2012. "Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1140-1155.
    16. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2008. "Exchange Rate Analysis in Practice," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 61-91, April.
    17. Carolina Arteaga & Roderick Luna & Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2011. "Normas de cuenta corriente y tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 9150, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    19. Borgy, V. & Clerc, L. & Renne, J-P., 2009. "Asset-price boom-bust cycles and credit: what is the scope of macro-prudential regulation?," Working papers 263, Banque de France.
    20. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Gregory D Sutton, 2002. "Explaining changes in house prices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    22. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 89(Q 1), pages 25-37.
    23. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does ‘Benign Neglect’ Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-164.
    24. Juan Ayuso & Jorge Martínez & Luis A. Maza & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices in Spain," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue OCT, pages 69-74, October.
    25. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? If Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 211-288.
    26. Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rhenals Monterrosa, Remberto & Gómez, Wilman, 2013. "La coyuntura macroeconómica reciente," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 22, pages 9-38, July.
    2. Jhon Edwar Torres & Juan Pablo Cote, 2017. "Un nuevo cálculo de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio para Colombia: Enfoque de Balance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 1030, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Ana María Iregui B. & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez G. & Carmen Cecilia Delgado R., 2013. "El efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 11106, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Béchir Bouzid, 2010. "Titrisation des emprunts hypothécaires et bulle immobilière aux États-Unis : les origines d’une débâcle," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 97(2), pages 101-142.
    4. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
    5. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, in: Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk (ed.), Papers presented during the Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis - 2015 edition, chapter 2, pages v1, 33-85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Ricardo J Caballero, 2010. "Sudden Financial Arrest," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 6-36, August.
    7. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    8. Joseph Gruber & Steven Kamin, 2009. "Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 667-688, September.
    9. Tamara Slišković, 2018. "Analiza međuovisnosti stambenog tržišta i makroekonomskog sustava u Hrvatskoj," EFZG Occasional Publications (Department of Macroeconomics), in: Zbornik radova znanstvenog skupa: Modeli razvoja hrvatskog gospodarstva, (ur. Družić, G.; Družić, I., izdavač: Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb; Hrvatska aka, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 247-280, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    10. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    11. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2012. "How housing slumps end [Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time: data and analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 647-692.
    12. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.
    13. Mr. Alasdair Scott & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/252, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    15. Marcin Łupiński, 2013. "Statistical Data and Models Used for Analysis and Management of Financial Stability at the Macro Level," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 32.
    16. Yazdani , Mahdi & Daryani , Elmira, 2021. "Output Loss from Sudden Stop of FDI and the Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 213-236, June.
    17. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    18. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Andreja Lenarčič & Barbara Roffia, 2015. "An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the Euro area housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 499-518, January.
    19. Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2015. "Towards a credit network based early warning indicator for crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 78-97.
    20. Adams, Zeno & Füss, Roland, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-50, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desbalances; Macroeconomía; Crecimiento económico; Balanza de pagos; Colombia; Imbalances; Macroeconomic; Economic growth; Balance of payments; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:bdrcap:2013-09-301-336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.