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Prélèvement à la source de l'impôt sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité générationelle ?

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Le passage au prélèvement à la source de l'impôt sur le revenu prévu en France pour l'année 2019 introduit deux modifications fiscales. D'abord, puisque les impôts prélevés en 2018 le seront sur la base des revenus 2017 et ceux de l'année 2019 sur ceux de l'année 2019, les revenus 2018 ne seront pas fiscalisés, laissant ainsi place à une « année blanche ». Ensuite, les contribuables perdront l'avantage du paiement de l'impôt avec une année de décalage, caractérisant ainsi une hausse implicite d'impôt. Dans cet article, nous évaluons l'impact respectif de ces deux effets. Nous montrons que l'année blanche seule se traduit par une baisse annuelle des recettes fiscales proportionnelle à la différence entre le taux d'intérêt nominal et le taux de croissance des recettes fiscales. Ensuite, lorsqu'on tient compte de la hausse fiscale implicite, nous montrons comment l'Etat voit ses rentrées fiscales totales augmenter relativement au taux de croissance nominal de l'économie. Pour ce qui est des contribuables,nousmontronsquele prélèvementàla source aboutit à un impact inégalitaire, toujours en faveur des générations les plus âgées au détriment des nouveaux et potentiellement des futurs contribuables.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2018. "Prélèvement à la source de l'impôt sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité générationelle ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458262, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458262
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03458262
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    Keywords

    Withholding income tax; Public finance; Tax equity;
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