IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v91y2001i5p1564-1579.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Iceland's Natural Experiment in Supply-Side Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Bianchi
  • Bjorn R. Gudmundsson
  • Gylfi Zoega

Abstract

The move to a pay-as-you-earn income tax system in Iceland in 1987-1988 made income earned in 1987 tax-free. Using a sample of 9,274 individuals for the years 1986, 1987 and 1988, we calculate the labour-supply response of this change and find that total labour supply rose by 6.7% in 1987 over the average of 1986 and 1988 when we correct for entry in 1988. This consists of an 8.6% increase in weeks supplied by those already in the labour market in 1986 and a 1.9% decline due to entry/exit. The elasticity of weeks worked to the rise in after-tax wages was 0.41 for men and 0.11 for women. While the participation rate of women increased somewhat in our sample, participation by men fell.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bianchi & Bjorn R. Gudmundsson & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Iceland's Natural Experiment in Supply-Side Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1564-1579, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:91:y:2001:i:5:p:1564-1579
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.5.1564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.91.5.1564
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fullerton, Don, 1982. "On the possibility of an inverse relationship between tax rates and government revenues," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-22, October.
    2. Feldstein, Martin, 1986. "Supply Side Economics: Old Truths and New Claims," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 26-30, May.
    3. Jerry A. Hausman, 1983. "Stochastic Problems in the Simulation of Labor Supply," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 47-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nada Eissa & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1996. "Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 605-637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erich Battistin & Agar Brugiavini & Enrico Rettore & Guglielmo Weber, 2009. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2209-2226, December.
    2. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova, 2023. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: A Meta-Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1095-1113, December.
    3. Roman Horvath & Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek, 2020. "Publication and Identification Biases in Measuring the Intertemporal Substitution of Labor Supply," Working Papers IES 2020/32, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    4. Jouko Verho & Kari Hämäläinen & Ohto Kanninen, 2022. "Removing Welfare Traps: Employment Responses in the Finnish Basic Income Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 501-522, February.
    5. Michaël Sicsic, 2022. "Does labour income react more to income tax or means‐tested benefits reforms?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 291-319, September.
    6. Hian Teck Hoon, 2009. "Payroll Taxes, Wealth and Employment in Neoclassical Theory: Neutrality or Non-neutrality?," Working Papers 08-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    7. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2018. "Prélèvement à la source de l'impôt sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité générationelle ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458262, HAL.
    8. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Prélèvement à la source de l'impot sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité fiscale ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-28, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. Isabel Z. Martínez & Emmanuel Saez & Michael Siegenthaler, 2021. "Intertemporal Labor Supply Substitution? Evidence from the Swiss Income Tax Holidays," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 506-546, February.
    10. David Staines, 2023. "Stochastic Equilibrium the Lucas Critique and Keynesian Economics," Papers 2312.16214, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    11. Sigurdsson, Jósef, 2023. "Transitory Earnings Opportunities and Educational Scarring of Men," IZA Discussion Papers 16050, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Jósef Sigurdsson, 2023. "Transitory Earnings Opportunities and Educational Scarring of Men," CESifo Working Paper Series 10361, CESifo.
    13. Petri Böckerman & Markus Jäntti, 2005. "Is Variation in Hours of Work Driven by Supply or Demand? Evidence from Finnish Manufacturing Industries," Labor and Demography 0505012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2013. "Does Indivisible Labor Explain the Difference between Micro and Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis of Extensive Margin Elasticities," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-56.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5f6r8mtjsm80ras2hkv5b13987 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ólafsdóttir, Thorhildur & Hrafnkelsson, Birgir & Thorgeirsson, Gudmundur & Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey, 2016. "The tax-free year in Iceland: A natural experiment to explore the impact of a short-term increase in labor supply on the risk of heart attacks," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 14-27.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5f6r8mtjsm80ras2hkv5b13987 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Andrés Erosa & Luisa Fuster & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2016. "Towards a Micro-Founded Theory of Aggregate Labour Supply," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 1001-1039.
    19. Chad Brown & Jeronimo Carballo & Alessandro Peri, 2022. "Bankruptcy Shocks and Legal Labor Markets: Evidence from the Court Competition Era," Papers 2202.00044, arXiv.org.
    20. Charles Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2017. "Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply: A Review," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 37-42, January.
    21. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    22. Gottlieb, Charles & Onken, Joern & Valladares-Esteban, Arnau, 2021. "On the measurement of the elasticity of labour," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    23. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    24. Lundberg, Jacob & Norell, John, 2018. "Taxes, benefits and labour force participation: A survey of the quasi-experimental literature," Ratio Working Papers 313, The Ratio Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno Théret & Didier Uri, 1988. "La courbe de Laffer dix ans après : un essai de bilan critique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(4), pages 753-808.
    2. Serguei Kaniovski & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2004. "Selbstfinanzierung der Steuerreform 2004/05," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25033, March.
    3. Olivier Bargain & Karina Doorley, 2016. "The Effect of Social Benefits on Youth Employment: Combining RD and a Behavioral Model," Post-Print hal-03894917, HAL.
    4. David R. Henderson, 1989. "Are We All Supply‐Siders Now?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 116-128, October.
    5. Bargain, Olivier B. & Doorley, Karina, 2013. "Putting Structure on the RD Design: Social Transfers and Youth Inactivity in France," IZA Discussion Papers 7508, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Howard Chernick, 1998. "Fiscal Effects of Block Grants for the Needy: An Interpretation of the Evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 5(2), pages 205-233, May.
    7. Nicole Simpson & Devin Reilly & Kartik Athreya, 2010. "The Earned Income Tax Credit: Insurance Without Disincentives?," 2010 Meeting Papers 1103, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Gabrielle Pepin, 2022. "How Would a Permanently Refundable Child and Dependent Care Credit Affect Eligibility, Benefits, and Incentives?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 50(1), pages 33-61, January.
    9. Marco Francesconi & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2007. "The Socioeconomic Consequences of "In-Work" Benefit Reform for British Lone Mothers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(1).
    10. Maximilian D. Schmeiser, 2012. "The impact of long‐term participation in the supplemental nutrition assistance program on child obesity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 386-404, April.
    11. Gan, Li & Ju, Gaosheng & Zhu, Xi, 2015. "Nonparametric estimation of structural labor supply and exact welfare change under nonconvex piecewise-linear budget sets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 526-544.
    12. Magda Iga & Kiełczewska Aneta & Brandt Nicola, 2020. "The effect of child benefit on female labor supply," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Olmstead, Sheila M. & Michael Hanemann, W. & Stavins, Robert N., 2007. "Water demand under alternative price structures," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 181-198, September.
    14. Ugo Colombino & Nizamul Islam, 2021. "Combining microsimulation and optimization to identify optimal universalistic tax-transfer rule," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    15. Charles Gottlieb & Maren Froemel, 2015. "General Equilibrium Effects of Targeted Transfers: The case of EITC," 2015 Meeting Papers 1264, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Ganghua Mei & Lei Yue, 2022. "Labor supply and time use: evidence from cohabiting women in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(44), pages 5133-5158, September.
    17. Samir Amine & Pedro Santos, 2013. "Technological Choices and Labor Market Participation: Negative Income Tax," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 3(2), pages 98-113, December.
    18. Richard Blundell & Mike Brewer & Marco Francesconi, 2008. "Job Changes and Hours Changes: Understanding the Path of Labor Supply Adjustment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(3), pages 421-453, July.
    19. Komlos John, 2019. "Reaganomics: A Watershed Moment on the Road to Trumpism," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Bouton, Laurent & Gassner, Marjorie & Verardi, Vincenzo, 2008. "Redistributing income under fiscal vertical imbalance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-328, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:91:y:2001:i:5:p:1564-1579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.