IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03457591.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper gives an assessment of the current state of the debate on fiscal policy effectiveness. I begin with an account of the theory of fiscal policy, and how it has evolved from the pre-Keynesians to the emergence of a "New Consensus" that dominated theory (and policy-making) until the crisis of 2008. Fiscal policy, a critical underpinning behind the full employment policies of the Post-WWII period, was removed from the policy-makers' toolbox by the New Consensus, and preference given to rules over discretion in government interventions. The paper then highlights how the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union (EMU) is an incarnation of the New Consensus, and argues that this had a rather negative impact on the growth performance of the Eurozone. The Stability and Growth Pact, the EMU fiscal rule, is then dissected to conclude that it is far from optimal even if it was never really applied. The paper then shows how the crisis has shaken the Consensus, and is leading to a reassessment of the utility of fiscal policy

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03457591, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03457591
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03457591
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03457591/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Wyplosz, 2012. "Fiscal Rules: Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 495-525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Geoffrey M. Hodgson, 2007. "Meanings of methodological individualism," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 211-226.
    3. Price Fishback, 2010. "US monetary and fiscal policy in the 1930s," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 385-413, Autumn.
    4. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2013. "An assessment of the Stability and Growth Pact reform in a small-scale macro-framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1567-1580.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 2000. "Thinking About the Liquidity Trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 221-237, December.
    6. Philip R. Lane, 2000. "Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(4), pages 585-604, December.
    7. Jean‐Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Fiscal Discipline as a Social Norm: The European Stability Pact," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(6), pages 1143-1168, December.
    8. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    10. Auerbach, Alan J & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2013. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy (vol 4, pg 1, 2012)," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt73c8q5wx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9909 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gordon, Robert J. & Krenn, Robert, 2010. "The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    15. Alesina, Alberto & Favero, Carlo & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2015. "The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 19-42.
    16. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    17. Ray, Nikhil. & Velasquez, Agustin. & Islam, Iyanatul,, 2015. "Fiscal rules, growth and employment : a developing country perspective," ILO Working Papers 994881313402676, International Labour Organization.
    18. Laurence Ball & David Romer, 1990. "Real Rigidities and the Non-Neutrality of Money," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 183-203.
    19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    20. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    21. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus‐Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2009. "On The Long‐Term Effects Of Fiscal Policy In The United Kingdom: The Case For A Golden Rule," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 580-607, November.
    22. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-246, May.
    23. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    24. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2013. "European economic governance: the Berlin–Washington Consensus," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(3), pages 479-496.
    25. Robert J. Gordon & Robert Krenn, 2010. "The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 16380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2010. "European fiscal rules after the crisis," Journal of Innovation Economics, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 95-122.
    28. Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco, 2000. "Public investment, the Stability Pact and the ‘golden rule’," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 207-229, June.
    29. repec:ilo:ilowps:488131 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    31. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, June.
    32. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    33. Eggertsson, Gauti & Ferrero, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2014. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 2-22.
    34. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    35. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    36. Moore, Henry Ludwell, 1914. "Economics Cycles: Their law and cause," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number moore1914.
    37. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
    38. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    39. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    40. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    41. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    42. Marco Buti & Gabriele Giudice, 2002. "Maastricht’s Fiscal Rules at Ten: An Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 823-848, December.
    43. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "Ten Commandments for a Fiscal Rule in the E(M)U," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 84-99.
    44. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    45. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, June.
    46. Richard B. Freeman, 2000. "Single Peaked Vs. Diversified Capitalism: The Relation Between Economic Institutions and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    48. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9909 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Mr. George Kopits & Mr. Steven A. Symansky, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/011, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Francesco Saraceno, 2016. "The ECB: a reluctant leading character of the EMU play," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 129-151, August.
    51. Coddington, Alan, 1976. "Keynesian Economics: The Search for First Principles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 1258-1273, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union," Working Papers hal-03457591, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eul7jlnf19iq8tdp0vlfv63n5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eul7jlnf19iq8tdp0vlfv63n5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/19jos6046o8m6qe8fce98t1bmp is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "When Keynes Goes to Brussels: A New Fiscal Rule for the EMU?," Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi, Torino (Italy), vol. 51(2), pages 131-157, December.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/19jos6046o8m6qe8fce98t1bmp is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    8. Francesco Saraceno, 2016. "When Keynes goes to Brussels : a new fiscal rule for the EMU," Working Papers hal-03459045, HAL.
    9. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2013. "European economic governance: the Berlin–Washington Consensus," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(3), pages 479-496.
    10. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9k2c8h4u2h is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Francesco Saraceno, 2016. "When Keynes goes to Brussels : a new fiscal rule for the EMU," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459045, HAL.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9k2c8h4u2h is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9k2c8h4u2h is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9k2c8h4u2h is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Carranza-Ugarte, Luis & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2023. "Rethinking fiscal rules," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 833-857.
      • Luis Carranza Ugarte & Julian Diaz Saavedra & Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, 2021. "Rethinking fiscal rules," ThE Papers 21/14, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    18. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    19. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595, January.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6761 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6761 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Francesco Saraceno, 2016. "The ECB: a reluctant leading character of the EMU play," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 129-151, August.
    23. Francesco Saraceno, 2018. "The end of the consensus ? The economic crisis and the crisis of macroeconomics," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03443466, HAL.
    24. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sergey K. Egiev, 2024. "Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 33195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Francesco Saraceno, 2018. "The end of the consensus ? The economic crisis and the crisis of macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-03443466, HAL.
    26. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2004. "The Brussels-Frankfurt-Washington Consensus. Old and New Tradeoffs in Economics," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    27. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    28. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6761 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    30. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6qk99khogd86non732alvigmuq is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Israel, Karl-Friedrich, 2017. "In the long run we are all unemployed?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 67-81.
    32. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6qk99khogd86non732alvigmuq is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal rules; Fiscal policy; EMU; Multipliers; History of economic thought; United States;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03457591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.